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Super League
Referee: M Krogh
Panathinaikos
S S S S S
2–1
Full-time
PAOK
U S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Panathinaikos PAOK
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 83%
83%
83%
Points per game
2,7
2,7
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
17%
67%
Both score Ø 25%
17%
33%
Average goals
1,8
3,3
Scored
1,7
2,8
Conceded
0,2
0,5
Goal diff per game
+1,5
+2,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Super League · 17/17 matches
Win Ø 56%
53%
59%
Points per game
1,9
1,9
Over 2.5 Ø 39%
18%
59%
Both score Ø 47%
35%
59%
Average goals
1,6
2,8
Scored
1,0
1,8
Conceded
0,6
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,4
+0,8
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

53% Possession 47%
18 Shots 3
10 Shots on target 2
0 Blocked shots 0
1 Goalkeeper saves 8
9 Corners 2
2 Offside 1
13 Free kicks against 17
1 Yellow cards 5
0 Red cards 1
The table before the match Panathinaikos 4. · PAOK 3.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 AEK 18 11 4 3 +21 37
2 Olympiakos 17 10 4 3 +16 34
3 PAOK 17 10 3 4 +14 33
4 Panathinaikos 17 9 6 2 +7 33
5 OFI Crete 19 8 5 6 +3 29
6 Aris Thessalonikis 17 8 3 6 +1 27
7 Aris 17 8 3 6 +1 27
8 Panetolikos 17 7 5 5 +4 26
9 Asteras Tripolis 19 7 5 7 +1 26
10 Atromitos 19 5 5 9 -5 20
11 Volos NFC 18 6 2 10 -15 20
12 Levadeiakos 18 3 8 7 -8 17
13 Panserraikos 19 5 2 12 -12 17
14 Athens Kallithea 18 1 9 8 -13 12
15 Lamia 18 1 6 11 -15 9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Panathinaikos PAOK
2′
A. Živković 0–1
M. Ozdoev
1–1 F. Ioannidis
N. Maksimović
12′
Half-time 1–1
48′
🟨 Abdul Rahman Baba
60′
🟨 Abdul Rahman Baba
60′
🟥 Abdul Rahman Baba
63′
🔁 Joan Sastre
↦ T. Murg
63′
🔁 M. Samatta
↦ Brandon Thomas
A. Ounahi 🔁
↦ Willian Arão
73′
F. Pellistri 🔁
↦ F. Đuričić
73′
73′
🔁 K. Despodov
↦ Taison
73′
🔁 S. Schwab
↦ M. Ozdoev
Nemanja Maksimović 🟨
82′
83′
🟨 Dejan Lovren
83′
🟨 Stefan Schwab
2–1 A. Ounahi
F. Pellistri
90′
D. Mancini 🔁
↦ T. Bakasetas
93′
93′
🔁 S. Shoretire
↦ A. Živković
A. Gnezda Čerin 🔁
↦ Tetê
94′
95′
🟨 Shola Shoretire
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Panathinaikos

4-3-3
69 B. Drągowski G
2 G. Vagiannidis D
21 T. Jedvaj D
15 S. Ingason D
25 F. Mladenović D
11 T. Bakasetas M
55 Willian Arão M
20 N. Maksimović M
10 Tetê F
7 F. Ioannidis F
31 F. Đuričić F
Bench (9)
8 A. Ounahi
28 F. Pellistri
16 A. Gnezda Čerin
17 D. Mancini
29 A. Jeremejeff
5 B. Schenkeveld
1 Y. Lodygin
18 D. Limnios
27 G. Kotsiras

Coach: Rui Vitória

PAOK

4-2-2-2
42 D. Kotarski G
19 Jonny D
16 T. Kędziora D
6 D. Lovren D
21 A. Baba D
2 Mady Camara M
27 M. Ozdoev M
14 A. Živković M
11 Taison M
10 T. Murg F
71 Brandon Thomas F
Bench (9)
23 Joan Sastre
70 M. Samatta
77 K. Despodov
22 S. Schwab
47 S. Shoretire
1 J. Pavlenka
34 T. Tissoudali
15 O. Colley
9 F. Chalov

Coach: R. Lucescu

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
2,13
U
3,24
B
3,39
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
2,10
U2,5
1,70
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

M Krogh · 77 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,6 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
23,4 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,14 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.