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Süper Lig
Referee: Y Arslan
Karagumruk
U T U S T
2–1
Full-time
Rizespor
U S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Karagumruk Rizespor
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
17%
50%
Points per game
0,8
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
33%
50%
Both score Ø 34%
50%
17%
Average goals
2,3
2,3
Scored
1,0
1,3
Conceded
1,3
1,0
Goal diff per game
-0,3
+0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Süper Lig · 27/26 matches
Win Ø 21%
15%
27%
Points per game
0,6
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 47%
44%
50%
Both score Ø 49%
48%
50%
Average goals
2,6
2,6
Scored
0,9
1,2
Conceded
1,7
1,4
Goal diff per game
-0,9
-0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,32 xG 1,55
37% Possession 63%
10 Shots 11
5 Shots on target 2
2 Blocked shots 1
1 Goalkeeper saves 3
0 Corners 3
3 Offside 0
15 Free kicks against 21
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Karagumruk 18. · Rizespor 11.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Galatasaray 27 20 4 3 +43 +29.6 64
2 Trabzonspor 28 19 6 3 +25 +7.6 63
3 Fenerbahce 27 17 9 1 +33 +27.2 60
4 Besiktas 27 15 7 5 +18 +23.8 52
5 Goztep 27 12 10 5 +12 +6.3 46
6 Buyuksehyr 27 12 7 8 +14 +3.5 43
7 Samsunspor 26 8 11 7 -2 +7.6 35
8 Gaziantep 28 8 10 10 -10 -3.5 34
9 Kocaelispor 27 9 6 12 -9 -2.4 33
10 Alanyaspor 28 6 14 8 +1 -7.9 32
11 Rizespor 26 7 9 10 -4 -0.1 30
12 Konyaspor 27 7 9 11 -8 -1.7 30
13 Kasimpasa 28 6 9 13 -13 -11.4 27
14 Genclerbirligi 28 6 7 15 -11 -15.3 25
15 Antalyaspor 27 6 7 14 -18 -21.0 25
16 Kayserispor 28 4 11 13 -29 -12.0 23
17 Eyüpspor 27 5 7 15 -19 -16.4 22
18 Karagumruk 27 4 5 18 -23 -13.9 17

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Karagumruk Rizespor
1–0 Serginho
D. Verde
39′
Half-time 1–0
58′
🟨 Samet Akaydın
60′
🔁 A. Sowe
↦ I. Olawoyin
T. Cukur 🔁
↦ D. Verde
69′
70′
A. Sowe 1–1
73′
🔁 G. Papanikolaou
↦ T. Antalyali
73′
🔁 A. Zeqiri
↦ L. Augusto
74′
🟨 Casper Højer
B. Kalayci 🔁
↦ Serginho
76′
Çağtay Kurukalıp 🟨
78′
M. Kadioglu 🔁
↦ C. Kurukalip
86′
T. Ahmed 🔁
↦ S. Larsson
86′
2–1 S. Babicka
T. Cukur
87′
91′
🔁 F. Pierrot
↦ H. Dervisoglu
91′
🔁 E. Bulut
↦ C. Hojer
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Karagumruk

4-4-2
13 I. Grbic G
47 R. Esgaio D
4 D. Biraschi D
3 I. Lichnovsky D
33 C. Kurukalip D
10 D. Verde M
6 B. Elmaz M
8 B. Ozcan M
80 S. Babicka M
70 Serginho F
23 S. Larsson F
Bench (8)
99 F. Beklevic
21 T. Cukur
72 B. Kalayci
24 B. Ersoy
32 M. Kadioglu
94 A. Cinar
88 T. Ahmed
19 Y. Onogo

Coach: Onur Korkmaz

Rizespor

4-1-4-1
75 Y. Fofana G
54 M. Pala D
3 S. Akaydin D
27 M. Sagnan D
5 C. Hojer D
14 T. Antalyali M
50 L. Augusto M
10 I. Olawoyin M
20 Q. Laci M
7 V. Mihaila M
11 H. Dervisoglu F
Bench (10)
1 E. Canpolat
19 F. Pierrot
4 A. Mocsi
9 A. Sowe
6 G. Papanikolaou
77 A. Zeqiri
37 T. Sahin
65 E. Ortakaya
18 M. Buljubasic
99 E. Bulut

Coach: Recep Ucar

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
2,78
U
3,40
B
2,29
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,75
U2,5
1,98
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Y Arslan · 12 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,3 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
27,1 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,33 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.