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Süper Lig
Referee: Z Küçük
Trabzonspor
T S S S T
5–1
Full-time
Karagumruk
T S U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Trabzonspor Karagumruk
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
50%
33%
Points per game
1,5
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 33%
33%
33%
Both score Ø 42%
33%
50%
Average goals
2,7
2,5
Scored
1,3
1,5
Conceded
1,3
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+0,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Süper Lig · 28/28 matches
Win Ø 38%
50%
25%
Points per game
1,6
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 45%
50%
39%
Both score Ø 47%
50%
43%
Average goals
2,9
2,3
Scored
1,6
1,1
Conceded
1,3
1,1
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+0,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

3,07 xG 0,28
67% Possession 33%
26 Shots 6
11 Shots on target 2
6 Blocked shots 1
1 Goalkeeper saves 7
8 Corners 2
10 Free kicks against 13
0 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Trabzonspor 3. · Karagumruk 16.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Galatasaray 29 25 3 1 +47 +39.5 78
2 Fenerbahce 28 23 4 1 +50 +50.4 73
3 Trabzonspor 28 14 4 10 +8 -0.7 46
4 Besiktas 28 14 4 10 +7 +9.4 46
5 Kasimpasa 28 11 7 10 -2 -10.0 40
6 Buyuksehyr 28 11 6 11 +3 -0.9 39
7 Rizespor 29 11 6 12 -13 -7.1 39
8 Antalyaspor 28 9 11 8 +2 +1.1 38
9 Sivasspor 29 9 11 9 -4 -6.1 38
10 Kayserispor 28 10 8 10 -6 -9.0 38
11 Ad. Demirspor 29 8 12 9 +4 -1.6 36
12 Alanyaspor 29 8 12 9 -5 +2.1 36
13 Samsunspor 28 9 6 13 -4 +3.3 33
14 Konyaspor 29 7 11 11 -11 -10.6 32
15 Ankaragücü 28 6 12 10 -3 -4.0 30
16 Karagumruk 28 7 8 13 +0 -9.7 29
17 Hatayspor 28 6 11 11 -7 -3.9 29
18 Gaziantep 28 7 7 14 -10 -11.2 28
19 Pendikspor 28 6 8 14 -25 -11.2 26
20 İstanbulspor 28 3 7 18 -31 -19.7 16

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Trabzonspor Karagumruk
12′
🟨 Koray Günter
14′
Marcão 0–1
C. Keles
31′
🟨 Münir Levent Mercan
0–2 D. Biraschi
own goal
32′
Half-time 0–2
46′
🔁 E. Tintiş
↦ L. Mercan
59′
🔁 F. Paoletti
↦ S. Féghouli
60′
🔁 K. Lasagna
↦ Marcão
62′
🟨 Flavio Paoletti
0–3 D. Biraschi
own goal
64′
E. Destan 🔁
↦ U. Güneş
65′
1–3 Trézéguet
N. Pépé
70′
75′
🔁 G. Yalçın
↦ E. Mor
2–3 N. Pépé
Trézéguet
76′
Joaquín Fernández 🔁
↦ E. Bardhi
79′
U. Bozok 🔁
↦ N. Pépé
80′
81′
🔁 A. Bertolacci
↦ M. Rohdén
T. Fountas 🔁
↦ E. Višća
86′
M. Aydın 🔁
↦ T. Meunier
86′
3–3 U. Bozok
Trézéguet
93′
Full-time 3–3

Line-ups

Trabzonspor

4-2-3-1
54 T. Tepe G
12 T. Meunier D
6 B. Mendy D
24 S. Denswil D
18 E. Elmalı D
5 B. Özdemir M
23 U. Güneş M
7 E. Višća M
8 E. Bardhi M
10 Trézéguet M
19 N. Pépé F
Bench (10)
94 E. Destan
3 Joaquín Fernández
9 U. Bozok
14 T. Fountas
50 M. Aydın
16 K. Şen
2 R. Baniya
33 G. Gürpüz
73 A. Boşluk
25 O. Çevikkan

Coach: A. Avcı

Karagumruk

4-2-3-1
31 S. Sirigu G
3 F. Veseli D
4 D. Biraschi D
25 K. Günter D
18 L. Mercan D
8 S. Féghouli M
21 D. Kourbelis M
11 E. Mor M
6 M. Rohdén M
7 C. Keles M
70 Marcão F
Bench (10)
22 E. Tintiş
97 F. Paoletti
15 K. Lasagna
10 G. Yalçın
91 A. Bertolacci
99 T. Teklić
77 A. Uğur
13 F. Bekleviç
23 E. Bilgin
30 N. Sangaré

Coach: S. Arveladze

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,76
U
3,70
B
4,44
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,87
U2,5
1,92
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Z Küçük · 92 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,1 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
29,5 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,32 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.