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Premier League

Referee: S Singh

Crystal Palace

T T U S T

1–1

Full-time

Luton

T T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Crystal Palace Luton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,2

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 92%

83%

100%

Both score Ø 92%

83%

100%

Average goals

3,8

5,5

Scored

1,7

1,8

Conceded

2,2

3,7

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-1,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 27/26 matches

Win Ø 23%

26%

19%

Points per game

1,0

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 66%

59%

73%

Both score Ø 70%

63%

77%

Average goals

2,9

3,5

Scored

1,2

1,4

Conceded

1,7

2,1

Goal diff per game

-0,6

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,73 xG 0,84

50% Possession 50%

21 Shots 8

4 Shots on target 2

8 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

8 Corners 6

0 Offside 1

20 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Crystal Palace 15. · Luton 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	27	19	6	2	+39	+27.6	63
2	Man City	27	19	5	3	+35	+31.0	62
3	Arsenal	27	19	4	4	+45	+37.5	61
4	Aston Villa	27	17	4	6	+22	+12.3	55
5	Tottenham	26	15	5	6	+16	+1.9	50
6	Man United	28	15	2	11	+0	-4.6	47
7	West Ham	27	12	6	9	-4	-12.9	42
8	Newcastle	27	12	4	11	+12	+3.0	40
9	Brighton	27	10	9	8	+5	+7.3	39
10	Wolves	27	11	5	11	-3	-8.4	38
11	Chelsea	26	10	6	10	+1	+8.9	36
12	Fulham	27	10	5	12	-3	-13.3	35
13	Everton	28	8	7	13	-10	+2.6	31
14	Bournemouth	26	8	7	11	-12	-4.6	31
15	Crystal Palace	27	7	7	13	-15	-8.8	28
16	Brentford	27	7	5	15	-11	+2.7	26
17	Nott'm Forest	27	6	6	15	-15	-7.3	24
18	Luton	26	5	5	16	-17	-21.6	20
19	Burnley	27	3	4	20	-35	-23.4	13
20	Sheffield United	27	3	4	20	-50	-29.9	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	13	11	2	0	+26	+26.0	35
2	Man City	14	10	4	0	+22	+15.5	34
3	Arsenal	13	10	2	1	+22	+22.3	32
4	Aston Villa	13	10	1	2	+20	+12.7	31
5	Tottenham	14	10	0	4	+10	+5.2	30
6	Newcastle	14	9	2	3	+18	+13.7	29
7	Fulham	14	8	1	5	+11	+2.4	25
8	Man United	14	8	1	5	+1	+2.6	25
9	Brighton	13	6	6	1	+11	+8.4	24
10	West Ham	13	6	4	3	+3	-6.4	22
11	Wolves	13	6	3	4	+0	-2.9	21
12	Chelsea	12	5	3	4	+2	+10.2	18
13	Brentford	14	4	4	6	-5	+2.5	16
14	Crystal Palace	13	4	3	6	-1	+0.8	15
15	Nott'm Forest	14	4	3	7	-2	+1.3	15
16	Everton	14	3	4	7	-3	+9.0	13
17	Bournemouth	12	3	4	5	-6	-1.4	13
18	Luton	14	3	2	9	-4	-2.7	11
19	Sheffield United	14	2	2	10	-30	-14.2	8
20	Burnley	14	1	2	11	-21	-7.0	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	14	9	2	3	+23	+15.2	29
2	Man City	13	9	1	3	+13	+15.5	28
3	Liverpool	14	8	4	2	+13	+1.6	28
4	Aston Villa	14	7	3	4	+2	-0.4	24
5	Man United	14	7	1	6	-1	-7.2	22
6	Tottenham	12	5	5	2	+6	-3.3	20
7	West Ham	14	6	2	6	-7	-6.5	20
8	Chelsea	14	5	3	6	-1	-1.3	18
9	Bournemouth	14	5	3	6	-6	-3.2	18
10	Everton	14	5	3	6	-7	-6.3	18
11	Wolves	14	5	2	7	-3	-5.6	17
12	Brighton	14	4	3	7	-6	-1.0	15
13	Crystal Palace	14	3	4	7	-14	-9.5	13
14	Newcastle	13	3	2	8	-6	-10.7	11
15	Brentford	13	3	1	9	-6	+0.1	10
16	Fulham	13	2	4	7	-14	-15.7	10
17	Luton	12	2	3	7	-13	-18.8	9
18	Nott'm Forest	13	2	3	8	-13	-8.6	9
19	Burnley	13	2	2	9	-14	-16.4	8
20	Sheffield United	13	1	2	10	-20	-15.7	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.