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Premier League

Referee: M Atkinson

Tottenham

S S T S S

5–1

Full-time

Newcastle

S S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Tottenham Newcastle

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

3,5

2,0

Scored

2,7

1,2

Conceded

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,8

+0,3

This season — Premier League · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 40%

55%

24%

Points per game

1,8

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

59%

45%

Both score Ø 50%

38%

62%

Average goals

2,9

2,8

Scored

1,6

1,1

Conceded

1,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,4

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

61% Possession 39%

19 Shots 8

6 Shots on target 1

5 Blocked shots 4

0 Goalkeeper saves 1

2 Corners 3

0 Offside 4

10 Free kicks against 7

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Tottenham 6. · Newcastle 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	30	23	4	3	+52	73
2	Liverpool	30	22	6	2	+57	72
3	Chelsea	29	17	8	4	+35	59
4	Arsenal	28	17	3	8	+13	54
5	West Ham	31	15	6	10	+11	51
6	Tottenham	29	16	3	10	+11	51
7	Man United	30	14	9	7	+8	51
8	Wolves	31	15	4	12	+6	49
9	Leicester	28	10	7	11	-4	37
10	Aston Villa	30	11	3	16	+0	36
11	Southampton	30	8	12	10	-9	36
12	Crystal Palace	29	7	13	9	+1	34
13	Brighton	30	7	13	10	-10	34
14	Brentford	31	9	6	16	-11	33
15	Newcastle	29	7	10	12	-17	31
16	Leeds	31	7	9	15	-33	30
17	Everton	28	7	4	17	-19	25
18	Watford	30	6	4	20	-28	22
19	Burnley	28	3	12	13	-18	21
20	Norwich	30	4	6	20	-45	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	15	12	3	0	+32	39
2	Man City	14	11	1	2	+30	34
3	Arsenal	15	10	2	3	+12	32
4	West Ham	16	9	3	4	+8	30
5	Tottenham	14	9	1	4	+10	28
6	Man United	16	8	4	4	+6	28
7	Chelsea	14	7	5	2	+15	26
8	Leicester	14	7	3	4	+5	24
9	Wolves	16	7	2	7	+2	23
10	Southampton	15	5	7	3	+6	22
11	Crystal Palace	15	4	7	4	+5	19
12	Everton	14	6	1	7	+0	19
13	Aston Villa	14	5	3	6	+3	18
14	Newcastle	14	4	6	4	-5	18
15	Brentford	15	5	2	8	-3	17
16	Leeds	16	4	5	7	-12	17
17	Brighton	16	3	6	7	-10	15
18	Burnley	14	2	6	6	-8	12
19	Norwich	15	2	3	10	-21	9
20	Watford	14	2	1	11	-20	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	16	12	3	1	+22	39
2	Liverpool	15	10	3	2	+25	33
3	Chelsea	15	10	3	2	+20	33
4	Wolves	15	8	2	5	+4	26
5	Man United	14	6	5	3	+2	23
6	Tottenham	15	7	2	6	+1	23
7	Arsenal	13	7	1	5	+1	22
8	West Ham	15	6	3	6	+3	21
9	Brighton	14	4	7	3	+0	19
10	Aston Villa	16	6	0	10	-3	18
11	Brentford	16	4	4	8	-8	16
12	Crystal Palace	14	3	6	5	-4	15
13	Watford	16	4	3	9	-8	15
14	Southampton	15	3	5	7	-15	14
15	Leicester	14	3	4	7	-9	13
16	Newcastle	15	3	4	8	-12	13
17	Leeds	15	3	4	8	-21	13
18	Burnley	14	1	6	7	-10	9
19	Norwich	15	2	3	10	-24	9
20	Everton	14	1	3	10	-19	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.