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Premier League
Referee: C Pawson
Everton
S T T T T
1–0
Full-time
Newcastle
U S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Everton Newcastle
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
17%
67%
Points per game
0,5
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
50%
33%
Both score Ø 34%
17%
50%
Average goals
2,7
2,0
Scored
0,7
1,3
Conceded
2,0
0,7
Goal diff per game
-1,3
+0,7
This season — Premier League · 26/28 matches
Win Ø 24%
23%
25%
Points per game
0,8
1,1
Over 2.5 Ø 52%
58%
46%
Both score Ø 57%
50%
64%
Average goals
2,9
2,9
Scored
1,1
1,1
Conceded
1,8
1,7
Goal diff per game
-0,7
-0,6
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

38% Possession 62%
9 Shots 17
3 Shots on target 6
3 Blocked shots 5
6 Goalkeeper saves 2
5 Corners 7
1 Offside 1
13 Free kicks against 11
2 Yellow cards 1
1 Red cards 0
The table before the match Everton 17. · Newcastle 14.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Man City 29 22 4 3 +50 70
2 Liverpool 29 21 6 2 +55 69
3 Chelsea 28 17 8 3 +38 59
4 Arsenal 27 16 3 8 +12 51
5 Man United 29 14 8 7 +8 50
6 West Ham 29 14 6 9 +12 48
7 Tottenham 28 15 3 10 +9 48
8 Wolves 29 14 4 11 +6 46
9 Aston Villa 28 11 3 14 +2 36
10 Southampton 29 8 11 10 -9 35
11 Crystal Palace 29 7 13 9 +1 34
12 Leicester 26 9 6 11 -5 33
13 Brighton 29 7 12 10 -10 33
14 Newcastle 28 7 10 11 -16 31
15 Brentford 29 8 6 15 -13 30
16 Leeds 29 6 8 15 -34 26
17 Everton 26 6 4 16 -19 22
18 Watford 29 6 4 19 -26 22
19 Burnley 27 3 12 12 -16 21
20 Norwich 29 4 5 20 -45 17

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Everton Newcastle
Half-time 0–0
Richarlison 🟨
64′
71′
🔁 A. Saint-Maximin
↦ M. Almirón
Anthony Gordon 🟨
76′
76′
🟨 Emil Krafth
D. Calvert-Lewin 🔁
↦ D. Gray
76′
Allan ℹ️
VAR: Card upgrade
82′
Allan 🟥
83′
85′
🔁 J. Murphy
↦ R. Fraser
André Gomes 🔁
↦ Richarlison
87′
93′
🔁 Javi Manquillo
↦ E. Krafth
1–0 A. Iwobi
D. Calvert-Lewin
99′
A. Townsend 🔁
↦ A. Gordon
105′
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Everton

4-2-3-1
15 A. Begović G
23 S. Coleman D
22 B. Godfrey D
5 M. Keane D
4 M. Holgate D
6 Allan M
16 A. Doucouré M
11 D. Gray M
17 A. Iwobi M
7 Richarlison F
24 A. Gordon M
Bench (9)
9 D. Calvert-Lewin
21 André Gomes
14 A. Townsend
3 N. Patterson
53 H. Tyrer
31 A. Lonergan
36 D. Alli
19 V. Mykolenko
33 S. Rondón

Coach: F. Lampard

Newcastle

4-3-3
1 M. Dúbravka G
5 F. Schär D
33 D. Burn D
17 E. Krafth D
13 M. Targett D
21 R. Fraser F
24 M. Almirón F
28 J. Willock M
39 Bruno Guimarães M
20 C. Wood F
7 Joelinton M
Bench (9)
10 A. Saint-Maximin
23 J. Murphy
19 Javi Manquillo
34 D. Gayle
11 M. Ritchie
6 J. Lascelles
36 S. Longstaff
26 K. Darlow
3 P. Dummett

Coach: E. Howe

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
2,37
U
3,38
B
3,11
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,98
U2,5 ✓
1,85
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

C Pawson · 173 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,8 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,7 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,12 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.