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Premier League

Referee: K Friend

Southampton

S U S S T

1–2

Full-time

Newcastle

S S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Southampton Newcastle

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

50%

83%

Points per game

1,8

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,8

2,2

Scored

1,5

1,7

Conceded

1,3

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+1,2

This season — Premier League · 27/26 matches

Win Ø 27%

30%

23%

Points per game

1,3

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 49%

52%

46%

Both score Ø 62%

59%

65%

Average goals

2,8

2,9

Scored

1,3

1,2

Conceded

1,5

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

68% Possession 32%

14 Shots 8

5 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

12 Corners 5

1 Offside 1

6 Free kicks against 7

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Southampton 9. · Newcastle 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	28	22	3	3	+50	69
2	Liverpool	27	19	6	2	+51	63
3	Chelsea	26	15	8	3	+35	53
4	Arsenal	25	15	3	7	+12	48
5	Man United	28	13	8	7	+7	47
6	West Ham	28	13	6	9	+11	45
7	Tottenham	26	14	3	9	+8	45
8	Wolves	27	12	4	11	+1	40
9	Southampton	27	8	11	8	-7	35
10	Crystal Palace	28	7	12	9	+1	33
11	Aston Villa	26	10	3	13	+0	33
12	Leicester	25	9	6	10	-3	33
13	Brighton	27	7	12	8	-6	33
14	Newcastle	26	6	10	10	-16	28
15	Brentford	28	7	6	15	-15	27
16	Leeds	27	5	8	14	-32	23
17	Everton	25	6	4	15	-18	22
18	Burnley	26	3	12	11	-14	21
19	Watford	27	5	4	18	-23	19
20	Norwich	27	4	5	18	-42	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	14	11	3	0	+30	36
2	Man City	14	11	1	2	+30	34
3	Arsenal	13	9	2	2	+12	29
4	Tottenham	13	8	1	4	+8	25
5	West Ham	14	7	3	4	+6	24
6	Man United	14	7	3	4	+5	24
7	Chelsea	12	6	5	1	+17	23
8	Southampton	13	5	7	1	+8	22
9	Leicester	13	6	3	4	+4	21
10	Crystal Palace	14	4	6	4	+5	18
11	Aston Villa	13	5	3	5	+4	18
12	Newcastle	14	4	6	4	-5	18
13	Wolves	13	5	2	6	-2	17
14	Everton	12	5	1	6	+0	16
15	Brentford	14	4	2	8	-5	14
16	Brighton	13	3	5	5	-6	14
17	Leeds	13	3	4	6	-10	13
18	Burnley	13	2	6	5	-6	12
19	Norwich	14	2	3	9	-19	9
20	Watford	14	2	1	11	-20	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	14	11	2	1	+20	35
2	Chelsea	14	9	3	2	+18	30
3	Liverpool	13	8	3	2	+21	27
4	Wolves	14	7	2	5	+3	23
5	Man United	14	6	5	3	+2	23
6	West Ham	14	6	3	5	+5	21
7	Tottenham	13	6	2	5	+0	20
8	Arsenal	12	6	1	5	+0	19
9	Brighton	14	4	7	3	+0	19
10	Crystal Palace	14	3	6	5	-4	15
11	Aston Villa	13	5	0	8	-4	15
12	Brentford	14	3	4	7	-10	13
13	Southampton	14	3	4	7	-15	13
14	Watford	13	3	3	7	-3	12
15	Leicester	12	3	3	6	-7	12
16	Newcastle	12	2	4	6	-11	10
17	Leeds	14	2	4	8	-22	10
18	Burnley	13	1	6	6	-8	9
19	Norwich	13	2	2	9	-23	8
20	Everton	13	1	3	9	-18	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.