Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Brescia
Vicenza
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 2–0
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Cremonese
|
32 | 17 | 9 | 6 | +18 | 60 |
| 2 |
Lecce
|
32 | 15 | 14 | 3 | +23 | 59 |
| 3 |
Pisa
|
32 | 16 | 10 | 6 | +12 | 58 |
| 4 |
Monza
|
31 | 16 | 9 | 6 | +21 | 57 |
| 5 |
Benevento
|
31 | 15 | 9 | 7 | +22 | 54 |
| 6 |
Brescia
|
31 | 14 | 12 | 5 | +15 | 54 |
| 7 |
Ascoli
|
32 | 15 | 7 | 10 | +5 | 52 |
| 8 |
Frosinone
|
32 | 13 | 12 | 7 | +15 | 51 |
| 9 |
Perugia
|
31 | 11 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 46 |
| 10 |
Cittadella
|
32 | 11 | 11 | 10 | +2 | 44 |
| 11 |
Ternana
|
32 | 12 | 8 | 12 | +0 | 44 |
| 12 |
Reggina
|
32 | 12 | 8 | 12 | -8 | 44 |
| 13 |
Parma
|
32 | 9 | 15 | 8 | +6 | 42 |
| 14 |
Como
|
31 | 9 | 14 | 8 | -3 | 41 |
| 15 |
Spal
|
32 | 7 | 12 | 13 | -11 | 33 |
| 16 | Alessandria | 32 | 6 | 8 | 18 | -23 | 26 |
| 17 |
Vicenza
|
31 | 6 | 6 | 19 | -21 | 24 |
| 18 |
Cosenza
|
31 | 5 | 9 | 17 | -23 | 24 |
| 19 |
Crotone
|
31 | 3 | 10 | 18 | -20 | 19 |
| 20 | Pordenone | 32 | 2 | 8 | 22 | -36 | 14 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Brescia
Brescia
Benevento
Lecce
Brescia
Cremonese
Brescia
Brescia
Perugia
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.