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Coupe de France
Referee: J Brisard
Guingamp
S S S S T
2–1
Full-time
Caen
S U S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Guingamp Caen
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
67%
33%
Points per game
2,0
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
83%
67%
Both score Ø 42%
50%
33%
Average goals
3,7
3,7
Scored
2,5
2,3
Conceded
1,2
1,3
Goal diff per game
+1,3
+1,0
This season — Coupe de France · 2/2 matches
Win Ø 100%
100%
100%
Points per game
3,0
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 100%
100%
100%
Both score Ø 25%
50%
0%
Average goals
5,0
5,0
Scored
4,5
5,0
Conceded
0,5
0,0
Goal diff per game
+4,0
+5,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

48% Possession 52%
8 Shots 11
4 Shots on target 5
0 Blocked shots 1
4 Goalkeeper saves 2
1 Corners 5
3 Offside 0
14 Free kicks against 15
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Guingamp 17. · Caen 16.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Bastia 3 3 0 0 +11 9
2 Le Puy Foot 3 3 0 0 +10 9
3 Bourgoin-Jallieu 3 3 0 0 +10 9
4 Lorient 3 3 0 0 +10 9
5 Cannes 3 3 0 0 +7 9
6 Thaon 3 3 0 0 +7 9
7 Troyes 3 3 0 0 +6 9
8 Dives-Cabourg 3 2 1 0 +7 7
9 Annecy 3 2 1 0 +6 7
10 Dijon 3 2 1 0 +4 7
11 Haguenau 3 2 1 0 +4 7
12 Espaly-Saint-Marcel 3 2 1 0 +4 7
13 Stade Briochin 3 2 1 0 +4 7
14 Hauts Lyonnais 3 2 1 0 +3 7
15 Dunkerque 3 2 1 0 +3 7
16 Caen 2 2 0 0 +10 6
17 Guingamp 2 2 0 0 +8 6
18 Feignies-Aulnoye 3 2 0 1 +5 6
19 Le Mans 2 2 0 0 +5 6
20 Thionville Lusitanos 2 2 0 0 +5 6
21 Martigues 3 2 0 1 +4 6
22 Clermont 2 2 0 0 +4 6
23 Sochaux 2 2 0 0 +4 6
24 Valenciennes 2 2 0 0 +3 6
25 Boulogne 3 2 0 1 +2 6
26 Union Saint-Jean 3 2 0 1 +2 6
27 ASS Still Mutzig 3 2 0 1 +2 6
28 Bordeaux 3 2 0 1 +1 6
29 Metz 3 2 0 1 +1 6
30 Drancy 3 2 0 1 +0 6
31 RC Calais 3 2 0 1 +0 6
32 RC Saint Joseph 3 2 0 1 -2 6
33 SA Mérignac 3 1 2 0 +6 5
34 Corte 3 1 2 0 +2 5
35 Red Star 2 1 1 0 +6 4
36 La Roche VF 3 1 1 1 +5 4
37 Bobigny 2 1 1 0 +4 4
38 Jura Sud Foot 2 1 1 0 +4 4
39 Grenoble 3 1 1 1 +3 4
40 Marmande 2 1 1 0 +3 4
41 Orleans 2 1 1 0 +3 4
42 Colmar 2 1 1 0 +3 4
43 St-Philbert Gd Lieu 2 1 1 0 +3 4
44 Amiens 3 1 1 1 +2 4
45 Concarneau 2 1 1 0 +2 4
46 Pau FC 2 1 1 0 +2 4
47 Saint-Denis 3 1 1 1 +1 4
48 Quevilly Rouen 2 1 1 0 +1 4
49 Beaumont Saint-Cyr 2 1 1 0 +1 4
50 Rumilly Vallières 2 1 1 0 +1 4
51 Saint-Malo 2 1 1 0 +1 4
52 Chasselay MDA 3 1 1 1 +0 4
53 Tours 3 1 1 1 +0 4
54 Marseille 1 1 0 0 +4 3
55 Nantes 1 1 0 0 +4 3
56 Rennes 1 1 0 0 +3 3
57 Monaco 1 1 0 0 +3 3
58 Strasbourg 1 1 0 0 +3 3
59 Mâcon 2 1 0 1 +2 3
60 Aubervilliers 2 1 0 1 +2 3
61 Rouen 2 1 0 1 +2 3
62 Reims 1 1 0 0 +2 3
63 Versailles 2 1 0 1 +1 3
64 Aigles d'Or de Mana 1 1 0 0 +1 3
65 Lyon 1 1 0 0 +1 3
66 Lille 1 1 0 0 +1 3
67 Brest 1 1 0 0 +1 3
68 Neuilly sur Marne 2 1 0 1 +0 3
69 Nancy 2 1 0 1 +0 3
70 Istres 2 1 0 1 +0 3
71 Angoulême 2 1 0 1 +0 3
72 Laval 3 0 3 0 +0 3
73 Gallia Lucciana 2 1 0 1 +0 3
74 Cluses-Scionzier 2 1 0 1 +0 3
75 Carnoux 2 1 0 1 +0 3
76 Beauvais 2 1 0 1 -1 3
77 La Roche sur Yon 2 1 0 1 -1 3
78 Calais Beau-Marais 2 1 0 1 -1 3
79 Les Herbiers 2 1 0 1 -1 3
80 Chambéry 2 1 0 1 -1 3
81 Ginglin Cesson 2 1 0 1 -1 3
82 Valence FC 2 1 0 1 -1 3
83 Olympique d'Alès 2 1 0 1 -2 3
84 Saint-Colomban Locminé 2 1 0 1 -2 3
85 Olympique de Valence 2 1 0 1 -2 3
86 Couzeix-Chaptelat 2 1 0 1 -2 3
87 Monnaie 2 1 0 1 -3 3
88 Bolbec 2 1 0 1 -5 3
89 Vierzon FC 2 0 2 0 +0 2
90 USSA Vertou 2 0 2 0 +0 2
91 Hettange-Grande 1 0 1 0 +0 1
92 Colomiers 1 0 1 0 +0 1
93 Avranches 1 0 1 0 +0 1
94 TA Rennes 1 0 1 0 +0 1
95 Paris FC 1 0 1 0 +0 1
96 Villefranche 1 0 1 0 +0 1
97 Fleury 91 1 0 1 0 +0 1
98 Romorantin 1 0 1 0 +0 1
99 Biesheim 1 0 1 0 +0 1
100 Saint-Omer 1 0 1 0 +0 1
101 Nice 1 0 1 0 +0 1
102 Linas-Montlhery 1 0 1 0 +0 1
103 Saint-Pierre Milizac 1 0 1 0 +0 1
104 Montagnarde 1 0 1 0 +0 1
105 Saint-Lô Manche 1 0 1 0 +0 1
106 Porto Portugais Amiens 1 0 1 0 +0 1
107 Brétigny Foot 1 0 1 0 +0 1
108 Vitré 1 0 1 0 +0 1
109 Stade Béthunois 1 0 1 0 +0 1
110 Toulouse 1 0 1 0 +0 1
111 Étoile Maritime 1 0 1 0 +0 1
112 Crépy-en-Valois 1 0 1 0 +0 1
113 Raon l'Etape 2 0 1 1 -1 1
114 Le Touquet 2 0 1 1 -1 1
115 Liancourt Clermont 2 0 1 1 -1 1
116 Diables Noirs 2 0 1 1 -2 1
117 Dinan Léhon 2 0 1 1 -3 1
118 Cesson 2 0 1 1 -3 1
119 Noyelles sous Lens 2 0 1 1 -3 1
120 Lunéville 2 0 1 1 -4 1
121 Agde 2 0 1 1 -4 1
122 Dragon 2 0 1 1 -5 1
123 Roubaix 1 0 0 1 -1 0
124 Chaumont 1 0 0 1 -1 0
125 Rodez 1 0 0 1 -1 0
126 OCPAM 1 0 0 1 -1 0
127 Pays de Cassel 1 0 0 1 -1 0
128 Vannes 1 0 0 1 -1 0
129 Saint-Cyr Collonges 1 0 0 1 -1 0
130 Ajaccio 1 0 0 1 -1 0
131 Samaritaine 1 0 0 1 -1 0
132 Vendée Fontenay 1 0 0 1 -1 0
133 Saint-Brieuc 1 0 0 1 -1 0
134 Maladrerie 1 0 0 1 -1 0
135 Auxerre 1 0 0 1 -1 0
136 Chantilly 1 0 0 1 -1 0
137 Jura Dolois 1 0 0 1 -1 0
138 Le Havre 1 0 0 1 -1 0
139 Biars-Bretenoux 1 0 0 1 -1 0
140 Marboz 1 0 0 1 -1 0
141 Blenod 1 0 0 1 -1 0
142 Marignane 1 0 0 1 -1 0
143 Arles 1 0 0 1 -1 0
144 Illkirch Graffenstaden 1 0 0 1 -1 0
145 Mérignac-Arlac 1 0 0 1 -1 0
146 Sauveteurs Brivois 1 0 0 1 -1 0
147 Lempdes 1 0 0 1 -1 0
148 Stade Beaucairois 1 0 0 1 -2 0
149 Epinal 1 0 0 1 -2 0
150 Grandvillars 1 0 0 1 -2 0
151 Sablé 1 0 0 1 -2 0
152 Les Ulis 1 0 0 1 -2 0
153 Gueugnon 1 0 0 1 -2 0
154 Canet Roussillon 1 0 0 1 -2 0
155 Bayonne 1 0 0 1 -2 0
156 Foron 1 0 0 1 -2 0
157 AC Paris 15 1 0 0 1 -2 0
158 Anduzien 1 0 0 1 -2 0
159 Fief-Gesté 1 0 0 1 -2 0
160 Sarre Union 1 0 0 1 -2 0
161 Saumur 1 0 0 1 -2 0
162 Alençon 1 0 0 1 -2 0
163 Ruffiac Malestroit 1 0 0 1 -2 0
164 Arras 1 0 0 1 -2 0
165 Comtal 1 0 0 1 -2 0
166 Grau-du-Roi 1 0 0 1 -2 0
167 Bressuire 1 0 0 1 -2 0
168 Etoile Matoury 2 0 0 2 -3 0
169 Saint-Pierroise 1 0 0 1 -3 0
170 Jeunesse Evolution 1 0 0 1 -3 0
171 Niort 1 0 0 1 -3 0
172 Houilles 1 0 0 1 -3 0
173 Paimpol 1 0 0 1 -3 0
174 Thouars 1 0 0 1 -3 0
175 FCSR Obernai 1 0 0 1 -3 0
176 Feytiat 1 0 0 1 -3 0
177 Nousseviller 1 0 0 1 -3 0
178 Boulay 1 0 0 1 -3 0
179 Avenir Mourenxois 1 0 0 1 -3 0
180 St Etienne 1 0 0 1 -4 0
181 Montpellier 1 0 0 1 -4 0
182 C' Chartres 1 0 0 1 -4 0
183 Freyming 1 0 0 1 -4 0
184 Cannet Rocheville 1 0 0 1 -4 0
185 Guéreins Genouilleux 1 0 0 1 -4 0
186 St-Just St-Rambert 1 0 0 1 -4 0
187 Valdahon Vercel 1 0 0 1 -4 0
188 ETC Anstaing Chéreng 1 0 0 1 -4 0
189 Labourse 1 0 0 1 -4 0
190 Montferrand 1 0 0 1 -4 0
191 Vesoul 1 0 0 1 -5 0
192 Serquigny Nassandres 1 0 0 1 -5 0
193 Raismes 1 0 0 1 -5 0
194 Allobroges Asafia 1 0 0 1 -5 0
195 Haubourdin 1 0 0 1 -6 0
196 St-Philbert Réorthe JA 1 0 0 1 -6 0
197 Olympique Cazaux 1 0 0 1 -6 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Guingamp Caen
23′
🟨 Mathias Autret
28′
🟨 Emmanuel Ntim
Half-time 0–0
Amine Hemia 🟨
60′
B. Labeau 🔁
↦ J. Siwe
64′
R. Ghrieb 🔁
↦ S. Guendouz
65′
T. Luvambo 🔁
↦ A. Hemia
65′
69′
🔁 M. Le Bihan
↦ L. Milliner
69′
🔁 T. Gomis
↦ G. Tomé
69′
🔁 L. Rajot
↦ M. Autret
1–0 T. Luvambo
H. Picard
79′
A. Demouchy 🔁
↦ D. Ourega
82′
L. Phiri 🔁
↦ D. Louiserre
82′
83′
🔁 K. Coulibaly
↦ N. Lebreton
86′
Alexandre Mendy 1–1
B. Brahimi
2–1 H. Picard
K. Sidibé
92′
Albin Demouchy 🟨
96′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Guingamp

4-2-3-1
1 B. Niasse G
2 A. Sissoko D
6 M. Riou D
5 P. Lemonnier D
3 D. Ourega D
8 K. Sidibé M
4 D. Louiserre M
7 S. Guendouz M
11 A. Hemia M
10 H. Picard M
9 J. Siwe F
Bench (9)
15 B. Labeau
17 R. Ghrieb
19 T. Luvambo
20 A. Demouchy
13 L. Phiri
12 D. Gomis
16 T. Bartouche-Selbonne
14 Junior Armando Mendes
18 R. Touzghar

Coach: S. Ripoll

Caen

4-1-4-1
1 Y. Clémentia G
2 D. Debohi
5 E. Ntim D
4 R. Thomas D
3 D. Bolumbu D
6 G. Tomé M
7 L. Milliner M
8 N. Lebreton M
10 B. Brahimi M
11 M. Autret M
9 Alexandre Mendy F
Bench (9)
17 M. Le Bihan
19 T. Gomis
14 L. Rajot
18 K. Coulibaly
20 R. Verhaeghe
12 L. Sy
13 Umaro Candé
15 M. Hafid
16 A. Mandréa

Coach: N. Seube

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

J Brisard · 168 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,6 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
24,5 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,30 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.