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Premier League

Referee: C Kavanagh

Everton

U U T S U

0–0

Full-time

Chelsea

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Everton Chelsea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

17%

100%

Points per game

1,0

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

33%

100%

Both score Ø 42%

83%

Average goals

1,5

4,8

Scored

0,7

3,7

Conceded

0,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+2,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 15/16 matches

Win Ø 42%

20%

63%

Points per game

1,0

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

47%

63%

Both score Ø 54%

33%

75%

Average goals

2,3

3,5

Scored

0,9

2,3

Conceded

1,4

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+1,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,03 xG 1,17

25% Possession 75%

5 Shots 12

4 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 4

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

2 Corners 5

2 Offside 1

20 Free kicks against 12

4 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Everton 16. · Chelsea 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	15	11	3	1	+18	+16.6	36
2	Chelsea	16	10	4	2	+18	+11.3	34
3	Arsenal	17	9	6	2	+18	+14.3	33
4	Nott'm Forest	17	9	4	4	+4	+2.7	31
5	Aston Villa	17	8	4	5	+0	+7.3	28
6	Man City	17	8	3	6	+4	+5.7	27
7	Newcastle	17	7	5	5	+6	+6.4	26
8	Bournemouth	16	7	4	5	+3	+12.4	25
9	Brighton	17	6	7	4	+1	-2.5	25
10	Fulham	16	6	6	4	+2	+1.3	24
11	Tottenham	16	7	2	7	+17	+6.9	23
12	Brentford	17	7	2	8	+0	-2.8	23
13	Man United	16	6	4	6	+2	+0.1	22
14	West Ham	17	5	5	7	-8	-4.2	20
15	Crystal Palace	17	3	7	7	-8	-1.5	16
16	Everton	15	3	6	6	-7	-5.0	15
17	Leicester	16	3	5	8	-13	-17.9	14
18	Ipswich	17	2	6	9	-16	-19.5	12
19	Wolves	16	2	3	11	-16	-10.6	9
20	Southampton	16	1	2	13	-25	-20.9	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Brentford	9	7	1	1	+10	+6.8	22
2	Liverpool	8	6	1	1	+10	+9.6	19
3	Arsenal	8	5	3	0	+11	+11.5	18
4	Aston Villa	9	5	3	1	+5	+10.1	18
5	Man City	8	5	1	2	+4	+7.5	16
6	Chelsea	8	4	3	1	+5	+7.6	15
7	Newcastle	8	4	2	2	+4	+4.6	14
8	Bournemouth	8	4	2	2	+4	+7.4	14
9	Nott'm Forest	8	4	2	2	+3	+4.1	14
10	Fulham	8	4	2	2	+1	+0.6	14
11	Tottenham	8	4	1	3	+9	+5.0	13
12	Man United	8	4	1	3	+2	+0.7	13
13	Brighton	8	3	4	1	+1	+1.3	13
14	West Ham	9	3	2	4	-4	-1.9	11
15	Everton	7	2	3	2	+1	-2.8	9
16	Leicester	8	2	3	3	-1	-7.6	9
17	Crystal Palace	9	1	4	4	-8	-0.1	7
18	Wolves	8	1	1	6	-8	-5.7	4
19	Ipswich	9	0	4	5	-10	-7.3	4
20	Southampton	8	1	1	6	-14	-12.3	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Chelsea	8	6	1	1	+13	+3.7	19
2	Liverpool	7	5	2	0	+8	+7.0	17
3	Nott'm Forest	9	5	2	2	+1	-1.4	17
4	Arsenal	9	4	3	2	+7	+2.7	15
5	Newcastle	9	3	3	3	+2	+1.8	12
6	Brighton	9	3	3	3	+0	-3.9	12
7	Man City	9	3	2	4	+0	-1.8	11
8	Bournemouth	8	3	2	3	-1	+5.0	11
9	Tottenham	8	3	1	4	+8	+1.9	10
10	Fulham	8	2	4	2	+1	+0.7	10
11	Aston Villa	8	3	1	4	-5	-2.8	10
12	Crystal Palace	8	2	3	3	+0	-1.4	9
13	Man United	8	2	3	3	+0	-0.6	9
14	West Ham	8	2	3	3	-4	-2.3	9
15	Ipswich	8	2	2	4	-6	-12.2	8
16	Everton	8	1	3	4	-8	-2.2	6
17	Wolves	8	1	2	5	-8	-4.9	5
18	Leicester	8	1	2	5	-12	-10.2	5
19	Brentford	8	0	1	7	-10	-9.6	1
20	Southampton	8	0	1	7	-11	-8.6	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.