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Coupe de France
Referee: B Lepaysant
2–2
Full-time
Valenciennes
U S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Thionville Lusitanos Valenciennes
Last 6 — all competitions · 5/6 matches
Win Ø 74%
80%
67%
Points per game
2,4
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 55%
60%
50%
Both score Ø 35%
20%
50%
Average goals
2,6
3,2
Scored
2,2
1,8
Conceded
0,4
1,3
Goal diff per game
+1,8
+0,5
This season — Coupe de France · 2/2 matches
Win Ø 100%
100%
100%
Points per game
3,0
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 25%
0%
50%
Average goals
2,5
4,5
Scored
2,5
3,0
Conceded
0,0
1,5
Goal diff per game
+2,5
+1,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

53% Possession 47%
11 Shots 12
5 Shots on target 7
2 Blocked shots 3
5 Goalkeeper saves 3
11 Corners 2
4 Offside 2
15 Free kicks against 14
2 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Thionville Lusitanos 20. · Valenciennes 24.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Bastia 3 3 0 0 +11 9
2 Le Puy Foot 3 3 0 0 +10 9
3 Bourgoin-Jallieu 3 3 0 0 +10 9
4 Lorient 3 3 0 0 +10 9
5 Cannes 3 3 0 0 +7 9
6 Thaon 3 3 0 0 +7 9
7 Troyes 3 3 0 0 +6 9
8 Dives-Cabourg 3 2 1 0 +7 7
9 Annecy 3 2 1 0 +6 7
10 Dijon 3 2 1 0 +4 7
11 Haguenau 3 2 1 0 +4 7
12 Espaly-Saint-Marcel 3 2 1 0 +4 7
13 Stade Briochin 3 2 1 0 +4 7
14 Hauts Lyonnais 3 2 1 0 +3 7
15 Dunkerque 3 2 1 0 +3 7
16 Caen 2 2 0 0 +10 6
17 Guingamp 2 2 0 0 +8 6
18 Feignies-Aulnoye 3 2 0 1 +5 6
19 Le Mans 2 2 0 0 +5 6
20 Thionville Lusitanos 2 2 0 0 +5 6
21 Martigues 3 2 0 1 +4 6
22 Clermont 2 2 0 0 +4 6
23 Sochaux 2 2 0 0 +4 6
24 Valenciennes 2 2 0 0 +3 6
25 Boulogne 3 2 0 1 +2 6
26 Union Saint-Jean 3 2 0 1 +2 6
27 ASS Still Mutzig 3 2 0 1 +2 6
28 Bordeaux 3 2 0 1 +1 6
29 Metz 3 2 0 1 +1 6
30 Drancy 3 2 0 1 +0 6
31 RC Calais 3 2 0 1 +0 6
32 RC Saint Joseph 3 2 0 1 -2 6
33 SA Mérignac 3 1 2 0 +6 5
34 Corte 3 1 2 0 +2 5
35 Red Star 2 1 1 0 +6 4
36 La Roche VF 3 1 1 1 +5 4
37 Bobigny 2 1 1 0 +4 4
38 Jura Sud Foot 2 1 1 0 +4 4
39 Grenoble 3 1 1 1 +3 4
40 Marmande 2 1 1 0 +3 4
41 Orleans 2 1 1 0 +3 4
42 Colmar 2 1 1 0 +3 4
43 St-Philbert Gd Lieu 2 1 1 0 +3 4
44 Amiens 3 1 1 1 +2 4
45 Concarneau 2 1 1 0 +2 4
46 Pau FC 2 1 1 0 +2 4
47 Saint-Denis 3 1 1 1 +1 4
48 Quevilly Rouen 2 1 1 0 +1 4
49 Beaumont Saint-Cyr 2 1 1 0 +1 4
50 Rumilly Vallières 2 1 1 0 +1 4
51 Saint-Malo 2 1 1 0 +1 4
52 Chasselay MDA 3 1 1 1 +0 4
53 Tours 3 1 1 1 +0 4
54 Marseille 1 1 0 0 +4 3
55 Nantes 1 1 0 0 +4 3
56 Rennes 1 1 0 0 +3 3
57 Monaco 1 1 0 0 +3 3
58 Strasbourg 1 1 0 0 +3 3
59 Mâcon 2 1 0 1 +2 3
60 Aubervilliers 2 1 0 1 +2 3
61 Rouen 2 1 0 1 +2 3
62 Reims 1 1 0 0 +2 3
63 Versailles 2 1 0 1 +1 3
64 Aigles d'Or de Mana 1 1 0 0 +1 3
65 Lyon 1 1 0 0 +1 3
66 Lille 1 1 0 0 +1 3
67 Brest 1 1 0 0 +1 3
68 Neuilly sur Marne 2 1 0 1 +0 3
69 Nancy 2 1 0 1 +0 3
70 Istres 2 1 0 1 +0 3
71 Angoulême 2 1 0 1 +0 3
72 Laval 3 0 3 0 +0 3
73 Gallia Lucciana 2 1 0 1 +0 3
74 Cluses-Scionzier 2 1 0 1 +0 3
75 Carnoux 2 1 0 1 +0 3
76 Beauvais 2 1 0 1 -1 3
77 La Roche sur Yon 2 1 0 1 -1 3
78 Calais Beau-Marais 2 1 0 1 -1 3
79 Les Herbiers 2 1 0 1 -1 3
80 Chambéry 2 1 0 1 -1 3
81 Ginglin Cesson 2 1 0 1 -1 3
82 Valence FC 2 1 0 1 -1 3
83 Olympique d'Alès 2 1 0 1 -2 3
84 Saint-Colomban Locminé 2 1 0 1 -2 3
85 Olympique de Valence 2 1 0 1 -2 3
86 Couzeix-Chaptelat 2 1 0 1 -2 3
87 Monnaie 2 1 0 1 -3 3
88 Bolbec 2 1 0 1 -5 3
89 Vierzon FC 2 0 2 0 +0 2
90 USSA Vertou 2 0 2 0 +0 2
91 Hettange-Grande 1 0 1 0 +0 1
92 Colomiers 1 0 1 0 +0 1
93 Avranches 1 0 1 0 +0 1
94 TA Rennes 1 0 1 0 +0 1
95 Paris FC 1 0 1 0 +0 1
96 Villefranche 1 0 1 0 +0 1
97 Fleury 91 1 0 1 0 +0 1
98 Romorantin 1 0 1 0 +0 1
99 Biesheim 1 0 1 0 +0 1
100 Saint-Omer 1 0 1 0 +0 1
101 Nice 1 0 1 0 +0 1
102 Linas-Montlhery 1 0 1 0 +0 1
103 Saint-Pierre Milizac 1 0 1 0 +0 1
104 Montagnarde 1 0 1 0 +0 1
105 Saint-Lô Manche 1 0 1 0 +0 1
106 Porto Portugais Amiens 1 0 1 0 +0 1
107 Brétigny Foot 1 0 1 0 +0 1
108 Vitré 1 0 1 0 +0 1
109 Stade Béthunois 1 0 1 0 +0 1
110 Toulouse 1 0 1 0 +0 1
111 Étoile Maritime 1 0 1 0 +0 1
112 Crépy-en-Valois 1 0 1 0 +0 1
113 Raon l'Etape 2 0 1 1 -1 1
114 Le Touquet 2 0 1 1 -1 1
115 Liancourt Clermont 2 0 1 1 -1 1
116 Diables Noirs 2 0 1 1 -2 1
117 Dinan Léhon 2 0 1 1 -3 1
118 Cesson 2 0 1 1 -3 1
119 Noyelles sous Lens 2 0 1 1 -3 1
120 Lunéville 2 0 1 1 -4 1
121 Agde 2 0 1 1 -4 1
122 Dragon 2 0 1 1 -5 1
123 Roubaix 1 0 0 1 -1 0
124 Chaumont 1 0 0 1 -1 0
125 Rodez 1 0 0 1 -1 0
126 OCPAM 1 0 0 1 -1 0
127 Pays de Cassel 1 0 0 1 -1 0
128 Vannes 1 0 0 1 -1 0
129 Saint-Cyr Collonges 1 0 0 1 -1 0
130 Ajaccio 1 0 0 1 -1 0
131 Samaritaine 1 0 0 1 -1 0
132 Vendée Fontenay 1 0 0 1 -1 0
133 Saint-Brieuc 1 0 0 1 -1 0
134 Maladrerie 1 0 0 1 -1 0
135 Auxerre 1 0 0 1 -1 0
136 Chantilly 1 0 0 1 -1 0
137 Jura Dolois 1 0 0 1 -1 0
138 Le Havre 1 0 0 1 -1 0
139 Biars-Bretenoux 1 0 0 1 -1 0
140 Marboz 1 0 0 1 -1 0
141 Blenod 1 0 0 1 -1 0
142 Marignane 1 0 0 1 -1 0
143 Arles 1 0 0 1 -1 0
144 Illkirch Graffenstaden 1 0 0 1 -1 0
145 Mérignac-Arlac 1 0 0 1 -1 0
146 Sauveteurs Brivois 1 0 0 1 -1 0
147 Lempdes 1 0 0 1 -1 0
148 Stade Beaucairois 1 0 0 1 -2 0
149 Epinal 1 0 0 1 -2 0
150 Grandvillars 1 0 0 1 -2 0
151 Sablé 1 0 0 1 -2 0
152 Les Ulis 1 0 0 1 -2 0
153 Gueugnon 1 0 0 1 -2 0
154 Canet Roussillon 1 0 0 1 -2 0
155 Bayonne 1 0 0 1 -2 0
156 Foron 1 0 0 1 -2 0
157 AC Paris 15 1 0 0 1 -2 0
158 Anduzien 1 0 0 1 -2 0
159 Fief-Gesté 1 0 0 1 -2 0
160 Sarre Union 1 0 0 1 -2 0
161 Saumur 1 0 0 1 -2 0
162 Alençon 1 0 0 1 -2 0
163 Ruffiac Malestroit 1 0 0 1 -2 0
164 Arras 1 0 0 1 -2 0
165 Comtal 1 0 0 1 -2 0
166 Grau-du-Roi 1 0 0 1 -2 0
167 Bressuire 1 0 0 1 -2 0
168 Etoile Matoury 2 0 0 2 -3 0
169 Saint-Pierroise 1 0 0 1 -3 0
170 Jeunesse Evolution 1 0 0 1 -3 0
171 Niort 1 0 0 1 -3 0
172 Houilles 1 0 0 1 -3 0
173 Paimpol 1 0 0 1 -3 0
174 Thouars 1 0 0 1 -3 0
175 FCSR Obernai 1 0 0 1 -3 0
176 Feytiat 1 0 0 1 -3 0
177 Nousseviller 1 0 0 1 -3 0
178 Boulay 1 0 0 1 -3 0
179 Avenir Mourenxois 1 0 0 1 -3 0
180 St Etienne 1 0 0 1 -4 0
181 Montpellier 1 0 0 1 -4 0
182 C' Chartres 1 0 0 1 -4 0
183 Freyming 1 0 0 1 -4 0
184 Cannet Rocheville 1 0 0 1 -4 0
185 Guéreins Genouilleux 1 0 0 1 -4 0
186 St-Just St-Rambert 1 0 0 1 -4 0
187 Valdahon Vercel 1 0 0 1 -4 0
188 ETC Anstaing Chéreng 1 0 0 1 -4 0
189 Labourse 1 0 0 1 -4 0
190 Montferrand 1 0 0 1 -4 0
191 Vesoul 1 0 0 1 -5 0
192 Serquigny Nassandres 1 0 0 1 -5 0
193 Raismes 1 0 0 1 -5 0
194 Allobroges Asafia 1 0 0 1 -5 0
195 Haubourdin 1 0 0 1 -6 0
196 St-Philbert Réorthe JA 1 0 0 1 -6 0
197 Olympique Cazaux 1 0 0 1 -6 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.