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Copa del Rey

Referee: Oliver De La Fuente

Castellon

T T T T S

2–1

Full-time

Oviedo

U U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Castellon Oviedo

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,5

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

17%

67%

Average goals

2,7

2,2

Scored

0,5

1,3

Conceded

2,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

-1,7

+0,5

This season — Copa del Rey · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 100%

100%

Points per game

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 100%

100%

Both score Ø 100%

100%

Average goals

5,0

3,0

Scored

3,0

2,0

Conceded

2,0

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match Castellon 27. · Oviedo 31. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Getafe	2	2	0	0	+13	6
2	Villarreal	2	2	0	0	+6	6
3	Betis	1	1	0	0	+11	3
4	Alaves	1	1	0	0	+10	3
5	Vallecano	1	1	0	0	+6	3
6	Valladolid	1	1	0	0	+4	3
7	Celta	1	1	0	0	+4	3
8	Mallorca	1	1	0	0	+4	3
9	Eibar	1	1	0	0	+4	3
10	Las Palmas	1	1	0	0	+3	3
11	Sp Gijon	1	1	0	0	+3	3
12	Sevilla	1	1	0	0	+3	3
13	Levante	1	1	0	0	+3	3
14	Granada	1	1	0	0	+3	3
15	Buñol	2	1	0	1	+2	3
16	La Coruna	1	1	0	0	+2	3
17	Antequera	1	1	0	0	+2	3
18	Ferrol	1	1	0	0	+2	3
19	Valencia	1	1	0	0	+2	3
20	Unionistas de Salamanca	1	1	0	0	+2	3
21	Yeclano	1	1	0	0	+2	3
22	Espanol	1	1	0	0	+2	3
23	Almeria	1	1	0	0	+2	3
24	Leganes	1	1	0	0	+2	3
25	Elche	1	1	0	0	+2	3
26	Sestao River	1	1	0	0	+1	3
27	Castellon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
28	Eldense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
29	Andratx	1	1	0	0	+1	3
30	Burgos	1	1	0	0	+1	3
31	Oviedo	1	1	0	0	+1	3
32	Mirandes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
33	Girona	1	1	0	0	+1	3
34	Ath Bilbao	1	1	0	0	+1	3
35	Melilla	1	1	0	0	+1	3
36	Cayón	1	1	0	0	+1	3
37	Villanovense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
38	Alcorcon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
39	Sociedad	1	1	0	0	+1	3
40	Tenerife	1	1	0	0	+1	3
41	Barbastro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
42	Lugo	1	1	0	0	+1	3
43	Atlético Astorga	1	1	0	0	+1	3
44	Valle Egüés	1	1	0	0	+1	3
45	Arenteiro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
46	Arandina	1	1	0	0	+1	3
47	Tudelano	1	1	0	0	+1	3
48	Terrassa	1	1	0	0	+1	3
49	Huesca	1	1	0	0	+1	3
50	Atzeneta	2	1	0	1	+0	3
51	Turégano	2	1	0	1	-2	3
52	Quintanar	2	1	0	1	-2	3
53	Boiro	2	1	0	1	-3	3
54	Chiclana	2	1	0	1	-4	3
55	Atlético Lugones	2	1	0	1	-5	3
56	Deportivo Murcia	2	1	0	1	-8	3
57	Hernán Cortés	2	1	0	1	-9	3
58	Tardienta	2	1	0	1	-11	3
59	Santander	1	0	1	0	+0	1
60	Rotlet Molinar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
61	Ucam Murcia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
62	Linares Deportivo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
63	Badalona	1	0	1	0	+0	1
64	Cadiz	1	0	1	0	+0	1
65	Azuaga	1	0	1	0	+0	1
66	Cartagena	1	0	1	0	+0	1
67	Barakaldo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
68	Malaga	1	0	1	0	+0	1
69	Orihuela	1	0	1	0	+0	1
70	Gimnastic	1	0	1	0	+0	1
71	Zamora	2	0	1	1	-1	1
72	Rubí	2	0	1	1	-1	1
73	Gimnástica Segoviana	1	0	0	1	-1	0
74	Cacereño	1	0	0	1	-1	0
75	Real Jaén	1	0	0	1	-1	0
76	Tarazona	1	0	0	1	-1	0
77	Hércules	1	0	0	1	-1	0
78	Manresa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
79	Utebo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
80	San Roque Lepe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
81	Pradejón	1	0	0	1	-1	0
82	Zirauki	1	0	0	1	-1	0
83	Náxara	1	0	0	1	-1	0
84	Ursaria	1	0	0	1	-1	0
85	Ibiza	1	0	0	1	-1	0
86	Zaragoza	1	0	0	1	-1	0
87	Navalcarnero	1	0	0	1	-1	0
88	Mijas Las Lagunas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
89	Monte	1	0	0	1	-1	0
90	Unión Zona Norte	1	0	0	1	-1	0
91	Compostela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
92	Ponferradina	1	0	0	1	-1	0
93	Antoniano	1	0	0	1	-1	0
94	Andorra	1	0	0	1	-1	0
95	Teruel	1	0	0	1	-1	0
96	Real Avilés	1	0	0	1	-1	0
97	Real Murcia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
98	Recreativo Huelva	1	0	0	1	-1	0
99	Albacete	1	0	0	1	-1	0
100	Águilas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
101	Melilla CD	1	0	0	1	-2	0
102	Santurtzi	1	0	0	1	-2	0
103	Sauzal	1	0	0	1	-2	0
104	Covadonga	1	0	0	1	-2	0
105	Manchego	1	0	0	1	-2	0
106	Marbella	1	0	0	1	-2	0
107	UD Logroñés	1	0	0	1	-2	0
108	Gernika	1	0	0	1	-2	0
109	Sanluqueño	1	0	0	1	-2	0
110	Mensajero	1	0	0	1	-2	0
111	CF Talavera	1	0	0	1	-2	0
112	Llerenense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
113	Europa Fc	1	0	0	1	-2	0
114	Ceuta 6 de Junio	1	0	0	1	-3	0
115	Manacor	1	0	0	1	-3	0
116	Guijuelo	1	0	0	1	-3	0
117	Varea	1	0	0	1	-3	0
118	Arosa	1	0	0	1	-3	0
119	Peña Deportiva	1	0	0	1	-4	0
120	Lorca Deportiva	1	0	0	1	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Yeclano	1	1	0	0	+2	3
2	Andratx	1	1	0	0	+1	3
3	Villanovense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
4	Barbastro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
5	Atlético Astorga	1	1	0	0	+1	3
6	Valle Egüés	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	Arandina	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Tudelano	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	Terrassa	1	1	0	0	+1	3
10	Atzeneta	2	1	0	1	+0	3
11	Turégano	2	1	0	1	-2	3
12	Quintanar	2	1	0	1	-2	3
13	Hernán Cortés	2	1	0	1	-9	3
14	Tardienta	2	1	0	1	-11	3
15	Ucam Murcia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
16	Badalona	1	0	1	0	+0	1
17	Azuaga	1	0	1	0	+0	1
18	Barakaldo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
19	Orihuela	1	0	1	0	+0	1
20	Zamora	2	0	1	1	-1	1
21	Rubí	2	0	1	1	-1	1
22	Gimnástica Segoviana	1	0	0	1	-1	0
23	Cacereño	1	0	0	1	-1	0
24	Real Jaén	1	0	0	1	-1	0
25	Hércules	1	0	0	1	-1	0
26	Manresa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
27	Utebo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
28	San Roque Lepe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
29	Pradejón	1	0	0	1	-1	0
30	Náxara	1	0	0	1	-1	0
31	Ursaria	1	0	0	1	-1	0
32	Navalcarnero	1	0	0	1	-1	0
33	Mijas Las Lagunas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
34	Buñol	1	0	0	1	-1	0
35	Monte	1	0	0	1	-1	0
36	Compostela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
37	Antoniano	1	0	0	1	-1	0
38	Real Avilés	1	0	0	1	-1	0
39	Águilas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
40	Melilla CD	1	0	0	1	-2	0
41	Covadonga	1	0	0	1	-2	0
42	Manchego	1	0	0	1	-2	0
43	Marbella	1	0	0	1	-2	0
44	UD Logroñés	1	0	0	1	-2	0
45	Gernika	1	0	0	1	-2	0
46	Mensajero	1	0	0	1	-2	0
47	CF Talavera	1	0	0	1	-2	0
48	Llerenense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
49	Europa Fc	1	0	0	1	-2	0
50	Ceuta 6 de Junio	1	0	0	1	-3	0
51	Manacor	1	0	0	1	-3	0
52	Guijuelo	1	0	0	1	-3	0
53	Varea	1	0	0	1	-3	0
54	Arosa	1	0	0	1	-3	0
55	Peña Deportiva	1	0	0	1	-4	0
56	Boiro	1	0	0	1	-4	0
57	Lorca Deportiva	1	0	0	1	-4	0
58	Chiclana	1	0	0	1	-5	0
59	Atlético Lugones	1	0	0	1	-6	0
60	Deportivo Murcia	1	0	0	1	-10	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Getafe	2	2	0	0	+13	6
2	Villarreal	2	2	0	0	+6	6
3	Betis	1	1	0	0	+11	3
4	Alaves	1	1	0	0	+10	3
5	Vallecano	1	1	0	0	+6	3
6	Valladolid	1	1	0	0	+4	3
7	Celta	1	1	0	0	+4	3
8	Mallorca	1	1	0	0	+4	3
9	Eibar	1	1	0	0	+4	3
10	Buñol	1	1	0	0	+3	3
11	Las Palmas	1	1	0	0	+3	3
12	Sp Gijon	1	1	0	0	+3	3
13	Sevilla	1	1	0	0	+3	3
14	Levante	1	1	0	0	+3	3
15	Granada	1	1	0	0	+3	3
16	Deportivo Murcia	1	1	0	0	+2	3
17	La Coruna	1	1	0	0	+2	3
18	Antequera	1	1	0	0	+2	3
19	Ferrol	1	1	0	0	+2	3
20	Valencia	1	1	0	0	+2	3
21	Unionistas de Salamanca	1	1	0	0	+2	3
22	Espanol	1	1	0	0	+2	3
23	Almeria	1	1	0	0	+2	3
24	Leganes	1	1	0	0	+2	3
25	Elche	1	1	0	0	+2	3
26	Sestao River	1	1	0	0	+1	3
27	Castellon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
28	Eldense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
29	Burgos	1	1	0	0	+1	3
30	Oviedo	1	1	0	0	+1	3
31	Mirandes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
32	Girona	1	1	0	0	+1	3
33	Atlético Lugones	1	1	0	0	+1	3
34	Ath Bilbao	1	1	0	0	+1	3
35	Melilla	1	1	0	0	+1	3
36	Cayón	1	1	0	0	+1	3
37	Alcorcon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
38	Chiclana	1	1	0	0	+1	3
39	Sociedad	1	1	0	0	+1	3
40	Boiro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
41	Tenerife	1	1	0	0	+1	3
42	Lugo	1	1	0	0	+1	3
43	Arenteiro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
44	Huesca	1	1	0	0	+1	3
45	Santander	1	0	1	0	+0	1
46	Rotlet Molinar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
47	Linares Deportivo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
48	Cadiz	1	0	1	0	+0	1
49	Cartagena	1	0	1	0	+0	1
50	Malaga	1	0	1	0	+0	1
51	Gimnastic	1	0	1	0	+0	1
52	Tarazona	1	0	0	1	-1	0
53	Zirauki	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	Ibiza	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Zaragoza	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Unión Zona Norte	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Ponferradina	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Andorra	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	Teruel	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Real Murcia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Recreativo Huelva	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	Albacete	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Santurtzi	1	0	0	1	-2	0
64	Sauzal	1	0	0	1	-2	0
65	Sanluqueño	1	0	0	1	-2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.