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DFB-Pokal

Referee: M Petersen

FC 08 Homburg

S S

1–4

Full-time

St Pauli

S S U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

FC 08 Homburg St Pauli

Last 6 — all competitions · 2/6 matches

Win Ø 84%

100%

67%

Points per game

3,0

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

100%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,0

2,8

Scored

2,5

1,8

Conceded

0,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

+2,0

+0,8

This season — DFB-Pokal · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 100%

100%

Points per game

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 100%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,0

4,0

Scored

2,5

3,5

Conceded

0,5

Goal diff per game

+2,0

+3,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

29% Possession 71%

1 Shots 15

1 Shots on target 5

0 Blocked shots 7

1 Goalkeeper saves 0

1 Corners 7

1 Offside 2

5 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match FC 08 Homburg 13. · St Pauli 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Kaiserslautern	3	3	0	0	+8	9
2	Fortuna Dusseldorf	3	3	0	0	+6	9
3	Leverkusen	2	2	0	0	+11	6
4	Paderborn	2	2	0	0	+9	6
5	M'gladbach	2	2	0	0	+9	6
6	Ein Frankfurt	2	2	0	0	+9	6
7	Hertha	2	2	0	0	+8	6
8	Nurnberg	3	2	0	1	+7	6
9	Wolfsburg	2	2	0	0	+7	6
10	Dortmund	2	2	0	0	+6	6
11	St Pauli	2	2	0	0	+6	6
12	Stuttgart	2	2	0	0	+5	6
13	FC 08 Homburg	2	2	0	0	+4	6
14	FC Saarbrücken	2	2	0	0	+2	6
15	Holstein Kiel	2	1	1	0	+2	4
16	Hamburg	2	1	1	0	+1	4
17	Magdeburg	3	1	1	1	+0	4
18	Heidenheim	2	1	0	1	+6	3
19	Bayern Munich	2	1	0	1	+3	3
20	Union Berlin	2	1	0	1	+3	3
21	Hoffenheim	2	1	0	1	+2	3
22	FC Koln	2	1	0	1	+1	3
23	Schalke 04	2	1	0	1	+1	3
24	Freiburg	2	1	0	1	+0	3
25	RB Leipzig	2	1	0	1	+0	3
26	Greuther Furth	2	1	0	1	+0	3
27	SpVgg Unterhaching	2	1	0	1	-1	3
28	FC Viktoria Koln	2	1	0	1	-1	3
29	Mainz	2	1	0	1	-2	3
30	Bielefeld	2	0	2	0	+0	2
31	Hannover	1	0	1	0	+0	1
32	Bochum	1	0	1	0	+0	1
33	FSV Frankfurt	1	0	1	0	+0	1
34	Hansa Rostock	2	0	1	1	-1	1
35	Sandhausen	2	0	1	1	-3	1
36	Rot-Weiß Essen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
37	Wehen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
38	Werder Bremen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
39	Regensburg	1	0	0	1	-1	0
40	Karlsruhe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	Elversberg	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	Hallescher FC	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Osnabruck	1	0	0	1	-2	0
44	Braunschweig	1	0	0	1	-2	0
45	Illertissen	1	0	0	1	-2	0
46	Oberachern	1	0	0	1	-2	0
47	FC Gutersloh	1	0	0	1	-2	0
48	Augsburg	1	0	0	1	-2	0
49	VfB Lubeck	1	0	0	1	-3	0
50	Darmstadt	1	0	0	1	-3	0
51	Preußen Münster	1	0	0	1	-4	0
52	Balingen	1	0	0	1	-4	0
53	FC Astoria Walldorf	1	0	0	1	-4	0
54	Schott Mainz	1	0	0	1	-5	0
55	Carl Zeiss Jena	1	0	0	1	-5	0
56	Atlas Delmenhorst	1	0	0	1	-5	0
57	TuS RW Koblenz	1	0	0	1	-5	0
58	Makkabi	1	0	0	1	-6	0
59	Cottbus	1	0	0	1	-7	0
60	Bersenbrück	1	0	0	1	-7	0
61	Lokomotive Leipzig	1	0	0	1	-7	0
62	Oberneuland	1	0	0	1	-8	0
63	Teutonia Ottensen	1	0	0	1	-8	0
64	Rostocker FC	1	0	0	1	-8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	FC 08 Homburg	2	2	0	0	+4	6
2	Kaiserslautern	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	FC Saarbrücken	2	2	0	0	+2	6
4	Hertha	1	1	0	0	+3	3
5	M'gladbach	1	1	0	0	+2	3
6	Nurnberg	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	St Pauli	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Dortmund	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	Wolfsburg	1	1	0	0	+1	3
10	Stuttgart	1	1	0	0	+1	3
11	SpVgg Unterhaching	2	1	0	1	-1	3
12	FC Viktoria Koln	2	1	0	1	-1	3
13	Bielefeld	2	0	2	0	+0	2
14	Holstein Kiel	1	0	1	0	+0	1
15	FSV Frankfurt	1	0	1	0	+0	1
16	Sandhausen	2	0	1	1	-3	1
17	Rot-Weiß Essen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
18	Wehen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
19	Regensburg	1	0	0	1	-1	0
20	Magdeburg	1	0	0	1	-1	0
21	Elversberg	1	0	0	1	-1	0
22	Hallescher FC	1	0	0	1	-1	0
23	Freiburg	1	0	0	1	-2	0
24	Osnabruck	1	0	0	1	-2	0
25	Braunschweig	1	0	0	1	-2	0
26	Illertissen	1	0	0	1	-2	0
27	Oberachern	1	0	0	1	-2	0
28	FC Gutersloh	1	0	0	1	-2	0
29	VfB Lubeck	1	0	0	1	-3	0
30	Preußen Münster	1	0	0	1	-4	0
31	Balingen	1	0	0	1	-4	0
32	FC Astoria Walldorf	1	0	0	1	-4	0
33	Schott Mainz	1	0	0	1	-5	0
34	Carl Zeiss Jena	1	0	0	1	-5	0
35	Atlas Delmenhorst	1	0	0	1	-5	0
36	TuS RW Koblenz	1	0	0	1	-5	0
37	Makkabi	1	0	0	1	-6	0
38	Cottbus	1	0	0	1	-7	0
39	Bersenbrück	1	0	0	1	-7	0
40	Lokomotive Leipzig	1	0	0	1	-7	0
41	Oberneuland	1	0	0	1	-8	0
42	Teutonia Ottensen	1	0	0	1	-8	0
43	Rostocker FC	1	0	0	1	-8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fortuna Dusseldorf	3	3	0	0	+6	9
2	Leverkusen	2	2	0	0	+11	6
3	Paderborn	2	2	0	0	+9	6
4	Ein Frankfurt	2	2	0	0	+9	6
5	Hamburg	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	Magdeburg	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	M'gladbach	1	1	0	0	+7	3
8	Heidenheim	2	1	0	1	+6	3
9	Nurnberg	2	1	0	1	+6	3
10	Wolfsburg	1	1	0	0	+6	3
11	Dortmund	1	1	0	0	+5	3
12	Hertha	1	1	0	0	+5	3
13	St Pauli	1	1	0	0	+5	3
14	Kaiserslautern	1	1	0	0	+5	3
15	Stuttgart	1	1	0	0	+4	3
16	Bayern Munich	2	1	0	1	+3	3
17	Union Berlin	2	1	0	1	+3	3
18	Hoffenheim	2	1	0	1	+2	3
19	Freiburg	1	1	0	0	+2	3
20	Holstein Kiel	1	1	0	0	+2	3
21	FC Koln	2	1	0	1	+1	3
22	Schalke 04	2	1	0	1	+1	3
23	RB Leipzig	2	1	0	1	+0	3
24	Greuther Furth	2	1	0	1	+0	3
25	Mainz	2	1	0	1	-2	3
26	Hannover	1	0	1	0	+0	1
27	Bochum	1	0	1	0	+0	1
28	Hansa Rostock	2	0	1	1	-1	1
29	Werder Bremen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
30	Karlsruhe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
31	Augsburg	1	0	0	1	-2	0
32	Darmstadt	1	0	0	1	-3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

FC 08 Homburg St Pauli

24′

⚽ H. Wahl 0–1

E. Smith

27′

🟨 Eric Smith

1–1 M. Mendler ⚽

28′

42′

🟨 Lars Ritzka

Half-time 1–1

46′

🔁 E. Saad

↦ E. Amenyido

46′

🔁 M. Saliakas

↦ L. Ritzka

A. Stavridis 🔁

↦ M. Mendler

58′

61′

🔁 O. Afolayan

↦ C. Metcalfe

64′

⚽ E. Saad 1–2

E. Smith

69′

⚽ M. Hartel 1–3

E. Saad

73′

⚽ J. Eggestein 1–4

M. Hartel

I. Knežević 🔁

↦ P. Hoffmann

77′

F. Eisele 🔁

↦ M. Jansen

77′

D. Schmidt 🔁

↦ M. Dombrowka

77′

80′

🔁 Maurides

↦ J. Eggestein

D. Hummel 🔁

↦ P. Harres

83′

85′

🔁 C. Boukhalfa

↦ J. Irvine

Fabian Eisele 🟨

86′

88′

🟨 Elias Saad

Full-time 1–4

Line-ups

FC 08 Homburg

5-4-1

12 T. Kretzschmar G

26 T. Steinmetz D

2 L. von Piechowski D

21 B. Kirchhoff D

30 M. Heilig D

8 M. Dombrowka D

13 P. Hoffmann M

22 P. Weihrauch M

20 M. Jansen M

11 M. Mendler M

P. Harres F

Bench (9)

16 A. Stavridis

27 I. Knežević

23 F. Eisele

18 D. Schmidt

19 D. Hummel

5 R. Akoto

1 J. Mayer

10 L. Quirin

3 D. Lippert

Coach: D. Schwarz

St Pauli

3-4-3

30 S. Burchert G

H. Wahl D

E. Smith D

K. Mets D

P. Treu M

7 J. Irvine M

M. Hartel M

L. Ritzka M

C. Metcalfe F

J. Eggestein F

14 E. Amenyido F

Bench (9)

26 E. Saad

2 M. Saliakas

17 O. Afolayan

9 Maurides

16 C. Boukhalfa

4 D. Nemeth

22 N. Vasilj

32 T. Scheller

15 D. Sinani

Coach: F. Hürzeler

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2

–

🔒

–

🔒

B ✓

–

🔒

Over/under goals

O1,5 ✓

–

🔒

U1,5

–

🔒

O2,5 ✓

–

🔒

U2,5

–

🔒

O3,5 ✓

–

🔒

U3,5

–

🔒

Both teams to score

BLS ja ✓

–

🔒

BLS nei

–

🔒

Recent matches

31. Oct POK 2 years ago

14. Aug POK 3 years ago

Referee

M Petersen · 103 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards

4,3 / match

Average

⚽ Free kicks

24,2 / match

Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,22 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.

How the model saw the match

Team trends

How the model assessed the goals markets

Most likely result

Match stats

Match report

Line-ups

FC 08 Homburg

St Pauli

Odds comparison

Recent matches

Referee