Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Castellon
Oviedo
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 0–0
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Espanol
|
32 | 19 | 7 | 6 | +32 | 64 |
| 2 |
Mallorca
|
32 | 19 | 7 | 6 | +21 | 64 |
| 3 |
Almeria
|
33 | 18 | 6 | 9 | +19 | 60 |
| 4 |
Sp Gijon
|
32 | 15 | 11 | 6 | +13 | 56 |
| 5 |
Leganes
|
32 | 16 | 6 | 10 | +9 | 54 |
| 6 |
Vallecano
|
32 | 15 | 7 | 10 | +9 | 52 |
| 7 |
Girona
|
33 | 13 | 10 | 10 | +1 | 49 |
| 8 |
Ponferradina
|
33 | 13 | 9 | 11 | -1 | 48 |
| 9 |
Las Palmas
|
32 | 11 | 10 | 11 | -4 | 43 |
| 10 |
Fuenlabrada
|
32 | 9 | 15 | 8 | +0 | 42 |
| 11 |
Malaga
|
32 | 11 | 9 | 12 | -9 | 42 |
| 12 |
Tenerife
|
32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | +0 | 41 |
| 13 |
Mirandes
|
30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | +0 | 41 |
| 14 |
Oviedo
|
32 | 8 | 15 | 9 | +1 | 39 |
| 15 |
Lugo
|
32 | 8 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 36 |
| 16 | Logrones | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | -18 | 36 |
| 17 |
Zaragoza
|
32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | -7 | 33 |
| 18 |
Castellon
|
32 | 9 | 6 | 17 | -9 | 33 |
| 19 |
Alcorcon
|
32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | -9 | 33 |
| 20 |
Sabadell
|
32 | 7 | 11 | 14 | -9 | 32 |
| 21 |
Cartagena
|
32 | 7 | 10 | 15 | -12 | 31 |
| 22 |
Albacete
|
32 | 7 | 8 | 17 | -17 | 29 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Albacete
Castellon
Castellon
Espanol
Lugo
Castellon
Castellon
Sabadell
Leganes
Castellon
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.