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Championship

Referee: Tom Reeves

Swansea

T T T T S

1–0

Full-time

Portsmouth

U T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Swansea Portsmouth

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,5

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,5

2,8

Scored

1,2

0,8

Conceded

2,3

2,0

Goal diff per game

-1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 19/18 matches

Win Ø 24%

26%

22%

Points per game

1,1

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

47%

44%

Both score Ø 51%

58%

44%

Average goals

2,5

2,2

Scored

1,1

0,8

Conceded

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,82 xG 0,80

50% Possession 50%

15 Shots 10

6 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

5 Corners 6

1 Offside 0

6 Free kicks against 9

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Swansea 20. · Portsmouth 22. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	19	13	4	2	+29	+18.5	43
2	Millwall	19	10	4	5	-2	+3.3	34
3	Middlesbrough	17	9	5	3	+5	+3.3	32
4	Ipswich	19	8	7	4	+14	+15.4	31
5	Preston	19	8	7	4	+6	-2.1	31
6	Stoke	19	9	3	7	+8	-2.6	30
7	Bristol City	19	8	5	6	+5	+2.0	29
8	Birmingham	19	8	4	7	+5	+12.0	28
9	Hull	18	8	4	6	+0	-11.1	28
10	QPR	19	8	4	7	-4	+2.2	28
11	Wrexham	19	6	9	4	+3	-4.8	27
12	Watford	19	7	6	6	+2	+3.2	27
13	Leicester	19	7	6	6	+1	-3.6	27
14	Southampton	18	7	5	6	+5	+8.6	26
15	Derby	19	7	5	7	-2	-6.4	26
16	West Brom	19	7	4	8	-4	+0.4	25
17	Charlton	18	6	5	7	-5	-8.3	23
18	Sheffield United	19	7	1	11	-4	+5.9	22
19	Blackburn	18	6	3	9	-5	+4.3	21
20	Swansea	19	5	5	9	-7	-9.6	20
21	Oxford	19	4	6	9	-7	-4.7	18
22	Portsmouth	18	4	5	9	-10	-6.8	17
23	Norwich	19	3	4	12	-11	-6.7	13
24	Sheffield Weds	18	1	5	12	-22	-12.2	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	9	7	2	0	+18	+9.0	23
2	Watford	10	6	3	1	+7	+3.8	21
3	Birmingham	9	6	2	1	+13	+11.9	20
4	Middlesbrough	9	6	2	1	+4	+0.0	20
5	Ipswich	10	5	4	1	+9	+12.8	19
6	Millwall	10	6	1	3	+0	+4.2	19
7	Preston	10	5	3	2	+4	-0.2	18
8	Hull	9	5	2	2	+1	-3.8	17
9	Stoke	9	5	1	3	+8	+2.5	16
10	West Brom	9	4	4	1	+3	+4.5	16
11	Wrexham	10	4	4	2	+2	+2.4	16
12	Southampton	8	4	2	2	+5	+7.0	14
13	Bristol City	10	4	2	4	+3	+0.3	14
14	QPR	9	4	2	3	+1	+5.5	14
15	Charlton	8	4	2	2	+1	-1.8	14
16	Leicester	9	3	4	2	+1	+2.9	13
17	Derby	10	3	3	4	-3	-0.9	12
18	Swansea	10	3	3	4	-3	-3.3	12
19	Portsmouth	10	3	2	5	-2	+0.7	11
20	Sheffield United	9	3	1	5	+0	+5.8	10
21	Oxford	9	2	4	3	-3	+0.1	10
22	Blackburn	9	1	2	6	-7	+1.6	5
23	Norwich	9	1	1	7	-6	-0.4	4
24	Sheffield Weds	10	0	2	8	-19	-7.4	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	10	6	2	2	+11	+9.5	20
2	Blackburn	9	5	1	3	+2	+2.7	16
3	Bristol City	9	4	3	2	+2	+1.7	15
4	Millwall	9	4	3	2	-2	-0.9	15
5	Derby	9	4	2	3	+1	-5.5	14
6	Leicester	10	4	2	4	+0	-6.6	14
7	Stoke	10	4	2	4	+0	-5.1	14
8	QPR	10	4	2	4	-5	-3.3	14
9	Preston	9	3	4	2	+2	-1.9	13
10	Ipswich	9	3	3	3	+5	+2.6	12
11	Middlesbrough	8	3	3	2	+1	+3.2	12
12	Southampton	10	3	3	4	+0	+1.5	12
13	Sheffield United	10	4	0	6	-4	+0.2	12
14	Wrexham	9	2	5	2	+1	-7.2	11
15	Hull	9	3	2	4	-1	-7.3	11
16	Norwich	10	2	3	5	-5	-6.3	9
17	Charlton	10	2	3	5	-6	-6.6	9
18	West Brom	10	3	0	7	-7	-4.1	9
19	Oxford	10	2	2	6	-4	-4.8	8
20	Swansea	9	2	2	5	-4	-6.3	8
21	Birmingham	10	2	2	6	-8	+0.1	8
22	Sheffield Weds	8	1	3	4	-3	-4.8	6
23	Watford	9	1	3	5	-5	-0.6	6
24	Portsmouth	8	1	3	4	-8	-7.5	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.