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Champions League
Referee: M Oliver
PSV Eindhoven
S S S S S
2–3
Full-time
Ath Madrid
S S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

PSV Eindhoven Ath Madrid
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 75%
83%
67%
Points per game
2,7
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
3,2
2,5
Scored
2,7
1,5
Conceded
0,5
1,0
Goal diff per game
+2,2
+0,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 5/5 matches
Win Ø 50%
40%
60%
Points per game
1,6
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 80%
60%
100%
Both score Ø 90%
100%
80%
Average goals
4,2
4,4
Scored
2,6
2,4
Conceded
1,6
2,0
Goal diff per game
+1,0
+0,4
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

2,67 xG 2,23
53% Possession 47%
13 Shots 15
3 Shots on target 9
3 Blocked shots 2
6 Goalkeeper saves 1
9 Corners 5
2 Offside 3
11 Free kicks against 15
4 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0

Match report

PSV Eindhoven Ath Madrid
1–0 G. Til ⚽
C. Driouech
10′
Ismael Saibari 🟨
20′
Jerdy Schouten 🟨
33′
37′
⚽ J. Alvarez 1–1
A. Sorloth
Mauro Júnior 🟨
41′
Half-time 1–1
47′
🟨 Giuliano Simeone
50′
🟨 Pablo Barrios
52′
⚽ D. Hancko 1–2
N. Molina
Yarek Gasiorowski 🟨
54′
56′
⚽ A. Sorloth 1–3
P. Barrios
A. Obispo 🔁
↦ Y. Gasiorowski
58′
D. Man 🔁
↦ P. Wanner
58′
69′
🔁 C. Gallagher
↦ N. Gonzalez
R. Pepi 🔁
↦ G. Til
73′
76′
🔁 A. Griezmann
↦ Koke
76′
🔁 T. Almada
↦ A. Sorloth
I. Perisic 🔁
↦ C. Driouech
81′
2–3 R. Pepi ⚽
I. Perisic
85′
89′
🔁 R. Le Normand
↦ G. Simeone
92′
🟨 Matteo Ruggeri
Full-time 2–3

Line-ups

PSV Eindhoven

4-4-2
32 M. Kovar G
8 S. Dest D
22 J. Schouten D
3 Y. Gasiorowski D
2 A. Salah-Eddine D
10 P. Wanner M
17 Mauro Junior M
23 J. Veerman M
11 C. Driouech M
20 G. Til F
34 I. Saibari F
Bench (11)
1 N. Olij
24 N. Schiks
4 A. Obispo
5 I. Perisic
6 R. Flamingo
9 R. Pepi
19 E. Bajraktarevic
25 K. Sildillia
27 D. Man
31 N. Fernandez
39 A. Nagalo

Coach: Peter Bosz

Ath Madrid

4-4-2
13 J. Oblak G
16 N. Molina D
18 M. Pubill D
17 D. Hancko D
3 M. Ruggeri D
20 G. Simeone M
8 P. Barrios M
6 Koke M
23 N. Gonzalez M
9 A. Sorloth F
19 J. Alvarez F
Bench (12)
1 J. Musso
31 S. Esquivel
4 C. Gallagher
5 J. Cardoso
7 A. Griezmann
11 T. Almada
12 C. Martin
21 J. Galan
22 G. Raspadori
24 R. Le Normand
30 D. Martinez
32 J. Bonar

Coach: Diego Simeone

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

M Oliver · 212 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,6 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
22,3 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,15 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.