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Champions League
Referee: N Walsh
Bayern Munich
S T S S S
3–1
Full-time
Sp Lisbon
S S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bayern Munich Sp Lisbon
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
67%
67%
Points per game
2,2
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 84%
100%
67%
Both score Ø 67%
83%
50%
Average goals
5,0
2,8
Scored
3,3
2,3
Conceded
1,7
0,5
Goal diff per game
+1,7
+1,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 5/5 matches
Win Ø 70%
80%
60%
Points per game
2,4
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 90%
100%
80%
Both score Ø 80%
80%
80%
Average goals
4,2
3,2
Scored
3,0
2,2
Conceded
1,2
1,0
Goal diff per game
+1,8
+1,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,10 xG 0,28
62% Possession 38%
23 Shots 4
9 Shots on target 0
3 Blocked shots 1
1 Goalkeeper saves 7
4 Corners 3
2 Offside 1
11 Free kicks against 5
2 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Bayern Munich Sp Lisbon
Half-time 1–0
54′
⚽ J. Kimmich 1–0
own goal
2–0 S. Gnabry ⚽
M. Olise
65′
66′
🔁 R. Mangas
↦ Alisson Santos
3–0 L. Karl ⚽
K. Laimer
69′
Joshua Kimmich 🟨
71′
71′
🟨 Morten Hjulmand
R. Guerreiro 🔁
↦ L. Karl
76′
4–0 J. Tah ⚽
S. Gnabry
77′
80′
🔁 G. Vagiannidis
↦ E. Quaresma
80′
🔁 F. Ioannidis
↦ G. Catamo
L. Goretzka 🔁
↦ A. Pavlovic
88′
A. Davies 🔁
↦ S. Gnabry
88′
H. Ito 🔁
↦ J. Stanisic
88′
N. Jackson 🔁
↦ H. Kane
92′
92′
🔁 H. Morita
↦ J. Simoes
92′
🔁 S. Blopa
↦ M. Araujo
Konrad Laimer 🟨
94′
Full-time 4–0

Line-ups

Bayern Munich

4-2-3-1
1 M. Neuer G
27 K. Laimer D
2 D. Upamecano D
4 J. Tah D
44 J. Stanisic D
6 J. Kimmich M
45 A. Pavlovic M
17 M. Olise M
42 L. Karl M
7 S. Gnabry M
9 H. Kane F
Bench (10)
26 S. Ulreich
40 J. Urbig
3 Kim Min-Jae
8 L. Goretzka
11 N. Jackson
19 A. Davies
20 T. Bischof
21 H. Ito
22 R. Guerreiro
36 W. Mike

Coach: Vincent Kompany

Sp Lisbon

5-4-1
1 R. Silva G
22 I. Fresneda D
72 E. Quaresma D
26 O. Diomande D
2 Matheus Reis D
20 M. Araujo D
10 G. Catamo M
42 M. Hjulmand M
52 J. Simoes M
27 Alisson Santos M
97 L. Suarez F
Bench (12)
12 J. Virginia
41 Diego Callai
5 H. Morita
13 G. Vagiannidis
14 G. Kochorashvili
25 G. Inacio
28 R. Ribeiro
58 F. Goncalves
70 S. Blopa
73 E. Felicissimo
89 F. Ioannidis
91 R. Mangas

Coach: Rui Borges

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

N Walsh · 171 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,1 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
23,6 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,26 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.