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Championship

Referee: O Langford

Leeds

S S S T U

1–0

Full-time

Stoke

T S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Leeds Stoke

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,3

2,7

Scored

2,5

0,8

Conceded

0,8

1,8

Goal diff per game

+1,7

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 33/35 matches

Win Ø 45%

61%

29%

Points per game

2,0

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

55%

40%

Both score Ø 44%

45%

43%

Average goals

2,6

2,3

Scored

1,8

0,9

Conceded

0,8

1,4

Goal diff per game

+1,1

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,36 xG 0,44

59% Possession 41%

15 Shots 13

7 Shots on target 6

6 Blocked shots 4

6 Goalkeeper saves 5

8 Corners 2

3 Offside 2

7 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Leeds 3. · Stoke 22. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	35	25	3	7	+40	+28.3	78
2	Ipswich	35	22	9	4	+25	+20.7	75
3	Leeds	33	20	7	6	+35	+29.0	67
4	Southampton	33	19	7	7	+21	+23.7	64
5	West Brom	33	17	8	8	+21	+8.2	59
6	Hull	35	16	8	11	+7	+6.5	56
7	Norwich	33	16	7	10	+11	-1.5	55
8	Preston	35	15	8	12	-5	-11.9	53
9	Coventry	35	13	12	10	+10	+10.5	51
10	Sunderland	35	14	5	16	+6	+9.3	47
11	Cardiff	35	14	5	16	-8	-19.0	47
12	Watford	35	11	11	13	+2	+1.7	44
13	Bristol City	35	12	8	15	-1	-0.4	44
14	Middlesbrough	34	13	5	16	-4	+11.1	44
15	Swansea	35	11	9	15	-11	-10.6	42
16	Plymouth	35	10	10	15	-6	-16.8	40
17	Blackburn	35	11	6	18	-13	-5.3	39
18	Millwall	35	10	9	16	-13	-11.0	39
19	QPR	35	10	8	17	-12	-9.5	38
20	Birmingham	34	10	8	16	-14	-7.8	38
21	Huddersfield	35	8	14	13	-15	-12.0	38
22	Stoke	35	10	8	17	-15	-3.0	38
23	Sheffield Weds	35	10	5	20	-24	-6.0	35
24	Rotherham	35	3	10	22	-37	-34.0	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	16	12	4	0	+25	+19.9	40
2	Leicester	18	13	1	4	+22	+15.4	40
3	Ipswich	17	12	4	1	+17	+17.8	40
4	West Brom	17	12	3	2	+17	+9.3	39
5	Norwich	17	12	2	3	+15	+7.5	38
6	Southampton	16	10	2	4	+18	+15.7	32
7	Preston	18	9	4	5	-2	-5.3	31
8	Sunderland	17	10	0	7	+8	+8.2	30
9	Coventry	17	7	8	2	+7	+6.4	29
10	Plymouth	18	8	4	6	+6	-6.4	28
11	Birmingham	17	7	6	4	+4	-0.4	27
12	Hull	17	7	5	5	+7	+7.3	26
13	Bristol City	18	7	3	8	+1	+1.3	24
14	Cardiff	17	7	3	7	-1	-8.6	24
15	Huddersfield	18	5	7	6	-2	-3.2	22
16	Sheffield Weds	17	6	4	7	-2	+1.6	22
17	Stoke	18	6	4	8	-7	+0.4	22
18	Middlesbrough	17	6	3	8	-3	+7.9	21
19	Blackburn	17	6	3	8	-4	+2.8	21
20	Watford	17	5	5	7	+4	+8.7	20
21	Swansea	18	5	5	8	-6	-1.8	20
22	Millwall	18	5	4	9	-12	-3.8	19
23	QPR	17	4	5	8	-6	-2.2	17
24	Rotherham	18	3	6	9	-7	-9.5	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	17	12	2	3	+18	+12.9	38
2	Ipswich	18	10	5	3	+8	+2.9	35
3	Southampton	17	9	5	3	+3	+8.0	32
4	Hull	18	9	3	6	+0	-0.8	30
5	Leeds	17	8	3	6	+10	+9.1	27
6	Watford	18	6	6	6	-2	-7.0	24
7	Middlesbrough	17	7	2	8	-1	+3.2	23
8	Cardiff	18	7	2	9	-7	-10.4	23
9	Coventry	18	6	4	8	+3	+4.1	22
10	Preston	17	6	4	7	-3	-6.6	22
11	Swansea	17	6	4	7	-5	-8.8	22
12	QPR	18	6	3	9	-6	-7.4	21
13	West Brom	16	5	5	6	+4	-1.1	20
14	Millwall	17	5	5	7	-1	-7.2	20
15	Bristol City	17	5	5	7	-2	-1.6	20
16	Blackburn	18	5	3	10	-9	-8.1	18
17	Sunderland	18	4	5	9	-2	+1.0	17
18	Norwich	16	4	5	7	-4	-9.0	17
19	Stoke	17	4	4	9	-8	-3.4	16
20	Huddersfield	17	3	7	7	-13	-8.9	16
21	Sheffield Weds	18	4	1	13	-22	-7.5	13
22	Plymouth	17	2	6	9	-12	-10.4	12
23	Birmingham	17	3	2	12	-18	-7.4	11
24	Rotherham	17	0	4	13	-30	-24.5	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.