Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Malaga
La Coruna
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 0–0
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Cadiz
|
39 | 19 | 12 | 8 | +14 | 69 |
| 2 |
Zaragoza
|
38 | 17 | 10 | 11 | +10 | 61 |
| 3 |
Huesca
|
38 | 18 | 7 | 13 | +9 | 61 |
| 4 |
Almeria
|
38 | 16 | 12 | 10 | +20 | 60 |
| 5 |
Girona
|
38 | 15 | 11 | 12 | +5 | 56 |
| 6 |
Elche
|
39 | 14 | 13 | 12 | +7 | 55 |
| 7 |
Fuenlabrada
|
39 | 13 | 15 | 11 | +5 | 54 |
| 8 |
Vallecano
|
38 | 11 | 20 | 7 | +9 | 53 |
| 9 |
Tenerife
|
38 | 14 | 11 | 13 | +6 | 53 |
| 10 |
Alcorcon
|
38 | 12 | 17 | 9 | +3 | 53 |
| 11 |
Mirandes
|
39 | 12 | 17 | 10 | -3 | 53 |
| 12 |
Sp Gijon
|
38 | 13 | 11 | 14 | +4 | 50 |
| 13 |
Las Palmas
|
38 | 12 | 14 | 12 | -1 | 50 |
| 14 |
Ponferradina
|
38 | 11 | 15 | 12 | -3 | 48 |
| 15 |
La Coruna
|
38 | 11 | 15 | 12 | -15 | 48 |
| 16 |
Malaga
|
38 | 9 | 19 | 10 | +0 | 46 |
| 17 |
Albacete
|
38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | -12 | 45 |
| 18 |
Numancia
|
38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | -6 | 44 |
| 19 |
Oviedo
|
38 | 10 | 14 | 14 | -7 | 44 |
| 20 |
Lugo
|
38 | 9 | 15 | 14 | -14 | 42 |
| 21 | Extremadura UD | 39 | 8 | 13 | 18 | -15 | 37 |
| 22 |
Santander
|
39 | 4 | 18 | 17 | -16 | 30 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Malaga
Albacete
Vallecano
Malaga
Malaga
Girona
Lugo
Malaga
Malaga
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.