Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Vallecano
Malaga
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 0–0
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Cadiz
|
37 | 17 | 12 | 8 | +11 | 63 |
| 2 |
Zaragoza
|
36 | 17 | 10 | 9 | +13 | 61 |
| 3 |
Huesca
|
37 | 18 | 7 | 12 | +10 | 61 |
| 4 |
Almeria
|
37 | 16 | 12 | 9 | +21 | 60 |
| 5 |
Elche
|
37 | 13 | 13 | 11 | +7 | 52 |
| 6 |
Girona
|
36 | 14 | 10 | 12 | +4 | 52 |
| 7 |
Alcorcon
|
37 | 12 | 16 | 9 | +3 | 52 |
| 8 |
Tenerife
|
37 | 13 | 11 | 13 | +5 | 50 |
| 9 |
Fuenlabrada
|
37 | 12 | 14 | 11 | +4 | 50 |
| 10 |
Vallecano
|
36 | 10 | 19 | 7 | +7 | 49 |
| 11 |
Sp Gijon
|
37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | +4 | 49 |
| 12 |
Mirandes
|
37 | 11 | 16 | 10 | -4 | 49 |
| 13 |
Ponferradina
|
37 | 11 | 15 | 11 | +0 | 48 |
| 14 |
Las Palmas
|
37 | 11 | 14 | 12 | -4 | 47 |
| 15 |
La Coruna
|
37 | 10 | 15 | 12 | -16 | 45 |
| 16 |
Malaga
|
36 | 9 | 17 | 10 | +0 | 44 |
| 17 |
Oviedo
|
37 | 10 | 14 | 13 | -5 | 44 |
| 18 |
Albacete
|
37 | 11 | 11 | 15 | -12 | 44 |
| 19 |
Numancia
|
37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | -7 | 41 |
| 20 |
Lugo
|
37 | 9 | 14 | 14 | -14 | 41 |
| 21 | Extremadura UD | 37 | 8 | 13 | 16 | -13 | 37 |
| 22 |
Santander
|
37 | 4 | 18 | 15 | -14 | 30 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Alcorcon
Vallecano
Vallecano
Sp Gijon
La Coruna
Vallecano
Vallecano
Fuenlabrada
Cadiz
Vallecano
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.