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Ligue 1
Referee: J Stinat
Lens
S S S S T
1–0
Full-time
Le Havre
T T S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lens Le Havre
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
83%
17%
Points per game
2,5
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
67%
17%
Both score Ø 33%
33%
33%
Average goals
2,8
1,3
Scored
2,2
0,5
Conceded
0,7
0,8
Goal diff per game
+1,5
-0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Ligue 1 · 19/19 matches
Win Ø 48%
74%
21%
Points per game
2,3
1,1
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
63%
37%
Both score Ø 47%
47%
47%
Average goals
2,6
2,1
Scored
1,7
0,8
Conceded
0,8
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,9
-0,4
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,08 xG 0,55
54% Possession 46%
15 Shots 8
3 Shots on target 2
3 Blocked shots 1
2 Goalkeeper saves 2
4 Corners 3
20 Free kicks against 10
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Lens 2. · Le Havre 15.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Paris SG 19 14 3 2 +26 +18.6 45
2 Lens 19 14 1 4 +17 +10.5 43
3 Marseille 19 12 2 5 +24 +12.0 38
4 Lyon 19 11 3 5 +12 +9.7 36
5 Lille 19 10 2 7 +5 +5.1 32
6 Rennes 19 8 7 4 +3 +1.7 31
7 Strasbourg 19 9 3 7 +9 +6.5 30
8 Toulouse 19 8 5 6 +8 +1.6 29
9 Lorient 19 6 7 6 -5 +1.4 25
10 Monaco 19 7 3 9 -5 +3.0 24
11 Angers 19 6 5 8 -5 -13.9 23
12 Brest 19 6 4 9 -7 +0.7 22
13 Nice 19 6 3 10 -11 -10.8 21
14 Paris FC 19 5 5 9 -8 -5.9 20
15 Le Havre 19 4 8 7 -8 -4.2 20
16 Nantes 19 3 5 11 -16 -12.7 14
17 Auxerre 19 3 3 13 -15 -7.5 12
18 Metz 19 3 3 13 -24 -15.8 12

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Lens Le Havre
1–0 R. Aguilar
M. Udol
45′
Half-time 1–0
49′
🟨 Sofiane Boufal
59′
🔁 D. N. Mosengo
↦ A. Sangante
Adrien Thomasson ℹ️
VAR: Goal cancelled
68′
69′
🔁 N. Obougou
↦ S. Boufal
70′
🔁 T. Pembele
↦ Y. Zouaoui
R. Fofana 🔁
↦ O. Edouard
75′
78′
🟨 Lucas Gourna-Douath
78′
🔁 F. Doucoure
↦ L. Nego
93′
🔁 K. Quetant
↦ S. Ebonog
94′
🔁 F. Mambimbi
↦ S. Zagadou
F. Sotoca 🔁
↦ F. Thauvin
95′
A. Sima 🔁
↦ W. Said
95′
Kyllian Antonio 🟨
98′
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Lens

3-4-2-1
40 R. Risser G
32 K. Antonio D
25 I. Ganiou D
20 M. Sarr D
2 R. Aguilar M
8 M. Sangare M
28 A. Thomasson M
14 M. Udol M
10 F. Thauvin F
22 W. Said F
11 O. Edouard F
Bench (9)
1 M. Gorgelin
4 N. Celik
23 S. Abdulhamid
5 A. Bulatovic
21 A. Haidara
26 A. Bermont
7 F. Sotoca
19 A. Sima
38 R. Fofana

Coach: Pierre Sage

Le Havre

3-4-1-2
77 L. Mpasi-Nzau G
29 S. Zagadou D
15 A. Seko D
93 A. Sangante D
7 L. Nego M
19 L. Gourna-Douath M
26 S. Ebonog M
18 Y. Zouaoui M
14 R. Ndiaye F
45 I. Soumare F
17 S. Boufal F
Bench (9)
99 M. Diaw
13 F. Doucoure
32 T. Pembele
8 Y. Kechta
78 D. N. Mosengo
11 G. Kyeremeh
10 F. Mambimbi
20 N. Obougou
33 K. Quetant

Coach: Didier Digard

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,38
U
4,90
B
7,25
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,56
U2,5 ✓
2,33
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

J Stinat · 142 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,7 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
24,3 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,23 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.