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Championship

Referee: J Moss

Watford

S S S T S

1–0

Full-time

Nott'm Forest

T S S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Watford Nott'm Forest

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 25%

33%

17%

Average goals

3,0

1,0

Scored

2,3

0,5

Conceded

0,7

0,5

Goal diff per game

+1,7

+0,0

This season — Championship · 34/34 matches

Win Ø 41%

53%

29%

Points per game

1,9

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 27%

29%

24%

Both score Ø 38%

38%

Average goals

2,0

1,8

Scored

1,3

0,8

Conceded

0,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,6

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

57% Possession 43%

12 Shots 9

4 Shots on target 0

3 Blocked shots 3

0 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 8

1 Offside 4

16 Free kicks against 8

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Watford 2. · Nott'm Forest 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	34	22	7	5	+23	73
2	Watford	34	18	9	7	+21	63
3	Brentford	32	17	8	7	+24	59
4	Reading	34	17	6	11	+9	57
5	Bournemouth	33	15	10	8	+17	55
6	Swansea	29	16	7	6	+14	55
7	Cardiff	35	15	9	11	+18	54
8	Barnsley	31	16	6	9	+8	54
9	Middlesbrough	34	14	8	12	+4	50
10	Millwall	34	10	16	8	+3	46
11	Stoke	34	11	12	11	+0	45
12	Bristol City	34	14	3	17	-10	45
13	Luton	33	12	8	13	-9	44
14	Preston	34	13	4	17	-6	43
15	Blackburn	33	11	7	15	+7	40
16	Nott'm Forest	34	10	10	14	-5	40
17	QPR	32	10	10	12	-7	40
18	Huddersfield	35	10	8	17	-12	38
19	Derby	33	10	8	15	-12	38
20	Coventry	34	8	11	15	-15	35
21	Birmingham	34	8	11	15	-16	35
22	Sheffield Weds	33	9	7	17	-16	34
23	Rotherham	32	9	5	18	-8	32
24	Wycombe	33	5	8	20	-32	23

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Watford	17	13	2	2	+22	41
2	Norwich	17	11	5	1	+14	38
3	Bournemouth	17	10	3	4	+12	33
4	Swansea	16	9	5	2	+10	32
5	Brentford	15	9	4	2	+15	31
6	Barnsley	15	9	3	3	+7	30
7	Reading	17	10	0	7	+5	30
8	Huddersfield	18	8	4	6	+7	28
9	Middlesbrough	17	8	3	6	+2	27
10	Stoke	17	7	4	6	+2	25
11	Cardiff	17	7	3	7	+12	24
12	Luton	16	6	6	4	+1	24
13	Coventry	17	6	6	5	-1	24
14	Blackburn	16	6	5	5	+5	23
15	Sheffield Weds	16	6	5	5	+2	23
16	Bristol City	17	7	2	8	-3	23
17	Millwall	17	4	10	3	+3	22
18	QPR	16	6	4	6	-2	22
19	Nott'm Forest	17	5	6	6	+0	21
20	Derby	17	5	5	7	-5	20
21	Preston	17	5	3	9	-2	18
22	Rotherham	16	4	3	9	-2	15
23	Wycombe	17	3	5	9	-11	14
24	Birmingham	17	3	3	11	-16	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	17	11	2	4	+9	35
2	Cardiff	18	8	6	4	+6	30
3	Brentford	17	8	4	5	+9	28
4	Reading	17	7	6	4	+4	27
5	Preston	17	8	1	8	-4	25
6	Barnsley	16	7	3	6	+1	24
7	Millwall	17	6	6	5	+0	24
8	Swansea	13	7	2	4	+4	23
9	Middlesbrough	17	6	5	6	+2	23
10	Birmingham	17	5	8	4	+0	23
11	Bournemouth	16	5	7	4	+5	22
12	Watford	17	5	7	5	-1	22
13	Bristol City	17	7	1	9	-7	22
14	Stoke	17	4	8	5	-2	20
15	Luton	17	6	2	9	-10	20
16	Nott'm Forest	17	5	4	8	-5	19
17	QPR	16	4	6	6	-5	18
18	Derby	16	5	3	8	-7	18
19	Blackburn	17	5	2	10	+2	17
20	Rotherham	16	5	2	9	-6	17
21	Coventry	17	2	5	10	-14	11
22	Sheffield Weds	17	3	2	12	-18	11
23	Huddersfield	17	2	4	11	-19	10
24	Wycombe	16	2	3	11	-21	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.