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Championship

Referee: D Bond

Luton

S S T T S

1–1

Full-time

Millwall

U U T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Luton Millwall

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

1,5

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,2

2,5

Scored

1,5

0,7

Conceded

1,7

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-1,2

This season — Championship · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 28%

33%

22%

Points per game

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

89%

22%

Both score Ø 67%

78%

56%

Average goals

3,4

2,1

Scored

1,6

0,8

Conceded

1,9

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

61% Possession 39%

13 Shots 13

4 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 4

5 Offside 2

7 Free kicks against 18

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Luton 18. · Millwall 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	10	6	2	2	+9	20
2	West Brom	10	5	4	1	+6	19
3	Nott'm Forest	10	5	4	1	+6	19
4	Preston	10	5	3	2	+7	18
5	Swansea	9	5	3	1	+7	18
6	Fulham	9	5	2	2	+10	17
7	Charlton	9	5	2	2	+4	17
8	Sheffield Weds	10	5	1	4	+6	16
9	Bristol City	9	4	4	1	+4	16
10	QPR	9	5	1	3	+0	16
11	Blackburn	10	4	2	4	+0	14
12	Hull	10	3	4	3	+1	13
13	Birmingham	10	4	1	5	-4	13
14	Cardiff	8	3	3	2	-1	12
15	Brentford	9	3	2	4	+1	11
16	Derby	9	2	5	2	-2	11
17	Wigan	10	3	2	5	-6	11
18	Luton	9	3	1	5	-3	10
19	Middlesbrough	10	2	4	4	-4	10
20	Millwall	9	2	4	3	-5	10
21	Reading	10	2	2	6	-5	8
22	Huddersfield	10	1	2	7	-9	5
23	Barnsley	9	1	2	6	-10	5
24	Stoke	10	0	2	8	-12	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Preston	5	4	1	0	+8	13
2	Fulham	5	3	1	1	+7	10
3	Swansea	5	3	1	1	+4	10
4	Charlton	5	3	1	1	+3	10
5	Wigan	5	3	1	1	+2	10
6	Cardiff	3	3	0	0	+3	9
7	West Brom	4	2	2	0	+3	8
8	Blackburn	6	2	2	2	+1	8
9	Leeds	5	2	2	1	+1	8
10	Hull	6	2	2	2	-1	8
11	Middlesbrough	6	2	2	2	-2	8
12	Nott'm Forest	4	2	1	1	+3	7
13	Birmingham	4	2	1	1	+2	7
14	Sheffield Weds	4	2	1	1	+2	7
15	Millwall	4	2	1	1	+1	7
16	QPR	5	2	1	2	-1	7
17	Derby	5	1	3	1	+0	6
18	Brentford	4	1	2	1	+2	5
19	Bristol City	4	1	2	1	+0	5
20	Luton	4	1	1	2	-3	4
21	Barnsley	5	1	1	3	-5	4
22	Reading	5	1	0	4	-5	3
23	Huddersfield	5	0	1	4	-6	1
24	Stoke	6	0	1	5	-7	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	5	4	0	1	+8	12
2	Nott'm Forest	6	3	3	0	+3	12
3	Bristol City	5	3	2	0	+4	11
4	West Brom	6	3	2	1	+3	11
5	Sheffield Weds	6	3	0	3	+4	9
6	QPR	4	3	0	1	+1	9
7	Swansea	4	2	2	0	+3	8
8	Fulham	4	2	1	1	+3	7
9	Charlton	4	2	1	1	+1	7
10	Luton	5	2	0	3	+0	6
11	Blackburn	4	2	0	2	-1	6
12	Brentford	5	2	0	3	-1	6
13	Birmingham	6	2	0	4	-6	6
14	Hull	4	1	2	1	+2	5
15	Reading	5	1	2	2	+0	5
16	Preston	5	1	2	2	-1	5
17	Derby	4	1	2	1	-2	5
18	Huddersfield	5	1	1	3	-3	4
19	Cardiff	5	0	3	2	-4	3
20	Millwall	5	0	3	2	-6	3
21	Middlesbrough	4	0	2	2	-2	2
22	Stoke	4	0	1	3	-5	1
23	Barnsley	4	0	1	3	-5	1
24	Wigan	5	0	1	4	-8	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.