Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Ponferradina
Mirandes
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 1–0
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Cadiz
|
9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | +6 | 22 |
| 2 |
Almeria
|
9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | +7 | 17 |
| 3 |
Zaragoza
|
8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | +8 | 16 |
| 4 |
Albacete
|
10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 16 |
| 5 |
Huesca
|
9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | +2 | 15 |
| 6 |
Las Palmas
|
10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 15 |
| 7 |
Fuenlabrada
|
8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 14 |
| 8 |
Vallecano
|
10 | 2 | 7 | 1 | +2 | 13 |
| 9 |
Numancia
|
9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 13 |
| 10 |
Girona
|
9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | +0 | 13 |
| 11 |
Elche
|
10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 13 |
| 12 |
Alcorcon
|
10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 12 |
| 13 |
Sp Gijon
|
9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | +2 | 11 |
| 14 |
Tenerife
|
9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | +0 | 11 |
| 15 |
Ponferradina
|
9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | +0 | 10 |
| 16 | Extremadura UD | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 9 |
| 17 |
Lugo
|
10 | 1 | 6 | 3 | -5 | 9 |
| 18 |
Santander
|
9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | +0 | 8 |
| 19 |
Malaga
|
9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 20 |
Mirandes
|
9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | -6 | 8 |
| 21 |
La Coruna
|
9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 22 |
Oviedo
|
9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 6 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Ponferradina
Las Palmas
Elche
Ponferradina
Ponferradina
Oviedo
Lugo
Ponferradina
Ponferradina
Alcorcon
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.