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Championship

Referee: Steve Martin

Derby

T S S T U

3–4

Full-time

Cardiff

T T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Cardiff

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 25%

33%

17%

Average goals

3,2

1,7

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

1,7

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,3

This season — Championship · 30/31 matches

Win Ø 39%

43%

35%

Points per game

1,6

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 39%

30%

48%

Both score Ø 38%

23%

52%

Average goals

1,9

2,6

Scored

1,1

1,2

Conceded

0,8

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

67% Possession 33%

18 Shots 15

5 Shots on target 8

10 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

9 Corners 5

2 Offside 0

5 Free kicks against 14

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 7. · Cardiff 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Newcastle	30	21	2	7	+35	65
2	Brighton	30	19	7	4	+26	64
3	Huddersfield	28	18	4	6	+9	58
4	Leeds	31	17	3	11	+10	54
5	Reading	29	16	6	7	+9	54
6	Norwich	31	15	5	11	+12	50
7	Derby	30	13	8	9	+8	47
8	Sheffield Weds	28	13	7	8	+6	46
9	Barnsley	31	13	7	11	+4	46
10	Preston	31	12	9	10	+3	45
11	Fulham	28	11	10	7	+10	43
12	Birmingham	31	10	10	11	-10	40
13	Ipswich	31	10	9	12	-7	39
14	Cardiff	31	11	6	14	-8	39
15	Brentford	30	10	7	13	+0	37
16	Aston Villa	30	8	12	10	-4	36
17	Nott'm Forest	31	10	6	15	-10	36
18	Wolves	30	9	8	13	-3	35
19	QPR	31	9	7	15	-14	34
20	Bristol City	30	9	5	16	-3	32
21	Burton Albion	31	8	7	16	-14	31
22	Blackburn	30	7	8	15	-12	29
23	Wigan	30	6	8	16	-10	26
24	Rotherham	31	4	5	22	-37	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	15	12	2	1	+24	38
2	Huddersfield	14	11	2	1	+12	35
3	Norwich	15	11	1	3	+21	34
4	Leeds	16	10	2	4	+10	32
5	Newcastle	15	10	1	4	+18	31
6	Reading	15	9	4	2	+11	31
7	Sheffield Weds	13	9	1	3	+8	28
8	Nott'm Forest	15	8	3	4	+6	27
9	Derby	15	7	5	3	+8	26
10	Aston Villa	14	6	7	1	+8	25
11	Preston	16	7	4	5	+6	25
12	Birmingham	16	7	4	5	+1	25
13	Ipswich	16	6	6	4	+2	24
14	Brentford	15	6	5	4	+9	23
15	Bristol City	15	7	2	6	+2	23
16	Barnsley	16	6	5	5	+1	23
17	Cardiff	16	7	2	7	-2	23
18	Fulham	14	5	5	4	+3	20
19	Burton Albion	15	6	2	7	+0	20
20	Blackburn	16	5	5	6	-2	20
21	Rotherham	15	4	4	7	-4	16
22	QPR	16	4	4	8	-9	16
23	Wolves	14	4	3	7	-5	15
24	Wigan	15	3	4	8	-6	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Newcastle	15	11	1	3	+17	34
2	Brighton	15	7	5	3	+2	26
3	Fulham	14	6	5	3	+7	23
4	Barnsley	15	7	2	6	+3	23
5	Reading	14	7	2	5	-2	23
6	Huddersfield	14	7	2	5	-3	23
7	Leeds	15	7	1	7	+0	22
8	Derby	15	6	3	6	+0	21
9	Wolves	16	5	5	6	+2	20
10	Preston	15	5	5	5	-3	20
11	Sheffield Weds	15	4	6	5	-2	18
12	QPR	15	5	3	7	-5	18
13	Cardiff	15	4	4	7	-6	16
14	Norwich	16	4	4	8	-9	16
15	Ipswich	15	4	3	8	-9	15
16	Birmingham	15	3	6	6	-11	15
17	Brentford	15	4	2	9	-9	14
18	Wigan	15	3	4	8	-4	13
19	Aston Villa	16	2	5	9	-12	11
20	Burton Albion	16	2	5	9	-14	11
21	Bristol City	15	2	3	10	-5	9
22	Blackburn	14	2	3	9	-10	9
23	Nott'm Forest	16	2	3	11	-16	9
24	Rotherham	16	0	1	15	-33	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.