Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Genk
Kortrijk
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Club Brugge
|
16 | 12 | 1 | 3 | +26 | 37 |
| 2 |
Anderlecht
|
15 | 10 | 4 | 1 | +13 | 34 |
| 3 |
Gent
|
15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | +19 | 33 |
| 4 |
Oostende
|
16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | +15 | 31 |
| 5 |
Waregem
|
15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | +6 | 25 |
| 6 |
Standard
|
18 | 8 | 1 | 9 | -10 | 25 |
| 7 |
Genk
|
13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | +4 | 23 |
| 8 |
St Truiden
|
20 | 7 | 2 | 11 | -7 | 23 |
| 9 |
Oud-Heverlee Leuven
|
24 | 6 | 5 | 13 | -11 | 23 |
| 10 |
Charleroi
|
15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | +3 | 22 |
| 11 |
Mechelen
|
19 | 6 | 4 | 9 | -7 | 22 |
| 12 |
Westerlo
|
24 | 5 | 7 | 12 | -20 | 22 |
| 13 |
Lokeren
|
18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 19 |
| 14 |
Royal Excel Mouscron
|
17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | -6 | 17 |
| 15 |
Beveren
|
17 | 5 | 2 | 10 | -11 | 17 |
| 16 |
Kortrijk
|
16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | -9 | 15 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Mechelen
Genk
Genk
St Truiden
Westerlo
Genk
Oud-Heverlee Leuven
Genk
Genk
Lokeren
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.