Serie A
Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Atalanta
Sassuolo
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 1–1
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Napoli
|
21 | 14 | 5 | 2 | +27 | 47 |
| 2 |
Juventus
|
21 | 14 | 3 | 4 | +23 | 45 |
| 3 |
Fiorentina
|
21 | 13 | 2 | 6 | +18 | 41 |
| 4 |
Inter
|
21 | 12 | 5 | 4 | +12 | 41 |
| 5 |
Roma
|
21 | 9 | 8 | 4 | +13 | 35 |
| 6 |
Milan
|
21 | 9 | 6 | 6 | +4 | 33 |
| 7 |
Sassuolo
|
21 | 8 | 8 | 5 | +2 | 32 |
| 8 |
Empoli
|
21 | 9 | 5 | 7 | +1 | 32 |
| 9 |
Lazio
|
21 | 9 | 4 | 8 | -1 | 31 |
| 10 |
Chievo
|
21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | +1 | 27 |
| 11 |
Torino
|
21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | -1 | 26 |
| 12 |
Bologna
|
21 | 8 | 2 | 11 | -3 | 26 |
| 13 |
Atalanta
|
21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | -3 | 26 |
| 14 |
Palermo
|
22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | -11 | 25 |
| 15 |
Udinese
|
21 | 7 | 3 | 11 | -16 | 24 |
| 16 |
Genoa
|
21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | -3 | 23 |
| 17 |
Sampdoria
|
21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 23 |
| 18 |
Carpi
|
22 | 4 | 7 | 11 | -16 | 19 |
| 19 |
Frosinone
|
21 | 4 | 4 | 13 | -23 | 16 |
| 20 |
Verona
|
21 | 0 | 10 | 11 | -19 | 10 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
M. Sportiello
G
M. de Roon
M
D. Berardi
F
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Frosinone
Atalanta
Atalanta
Inter
Atalanta
Genoa
Udinese
Atalanta
Atalanta
Napoli
Claudio Gavillucci · 46 kamper i vår database
🟥 Red cards: 0,20 per match
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.