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Primeira Liga

Referee: Hugo Miguel

Estoril

T T T T T

1–1

Full-time

Pacos Ferreira

T T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Estoril Pacos Ferreira

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

3,0

2,5

Scored

0,5

0,7

Conceded

2,5

1,8

Goal diff per game

-2,0

-1,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 23%

23%

Points per game

0,8

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

58%

50%

Both score Ø 45%

35%

54%

Average goals

2,9

2,8

Scored

0,9

1,0

Conceded

2,0

1,8

Goal diff per game

-1,2

-0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

51% Possession 49%

10 Shots 12

2 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 5

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 3

0 Offside 2

14 Free kicks against 16

2 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Estoril 18. · Pacos Ferreira 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	26	21	4	1	+54	67
2	Benfica	26	20	5	1	+53	65
3	Sp Lisbon	26	19	5	2	+34	62
4	Sp Braga	26	19	1	6	+35	58
5	Rio Ave	26	12	4	10	+0	40
6	Chaves	26	10	6	10	-7	36
7	Boavista	26	11	3	12	-7	36
8	Maritimo	26	10	6	10	-12	36
9	Portimonense	27	8	7	12	-7	31
10	Guimaraes	26	9	3	14	-15	30
11	Tondela	26	8	5	13	-8	29
12	Belenenses	26	7	8	11	-12	29
13	Aves	26	6	7	13	-10	25
14	Vitoria Setubal	27	5	10	12	-19	25
15	Pacos Ferreira	26	6	6	14	-19	24
16	Feirense	26	7	2	17	-12	23
17	Moreirense	26	5	7	14	-18	22
18	Estoril	26	6	3	17	-30	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	13	12	1	0	+37	37
2	Porto	13	12	1	0	+33	37
3	Sp Braga	14	12	0	2	+24	36
4	Sp Lisbon	13	11	2	0	+23	35
5	Maritimo	13	8	3	2	+6	27
6	Boavista	13	9	0	4	+5	27
7	Rio Ave	13	8	2	3	+10	26
8	Vitoria Setubal	14	5	6	3	+2	21
9	Portimonense	13	6	2	5	+2	20
10	Belenenses	13	5	5	3	+2	20
11	Guimaraes	12	6	2	4	-6	20
12	Pacos Ferreira	13	5	4	4	-1	19
13	Chaves	13	4	5	4	+0	17
14	Feirense	13	5	1	7	-3	16
15	Tondela	13	4	2	7	-4	14
16	Estoril	13	4	1	8	-12	13
17	Aves	13	3	3	7	-5	12
18	Moreirense	13	2	6	5	-5	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	13	9	3	1	+21	30
2	Benfica	13	8	4	1	+16	28
3	Sp Lisbon	13	8	3	2	+11	27
4	Sp Braga	12	7	1	4	+11	22
5	Chaves	13	6	1	6	-7	19
6	Tondela	13	4	3	6	-4	15
7	Rio Ave	13	4	2	7	-10	14
8	Aves	13	3	4	6	-5	13
9	Portimonense	14	2	5	7	-9	11
10	Guimaraes	14	3	1	10	-9	10
11	Moreirense	13	3	1	9	-13	10
12	Boavista	13	2	3	8	-12	9
13	Belenenses	13	2	3	8	-14	9
14	Maritimo	13	2	3	8	-18	9
15	Estoril	13	2	2	9	-18	8
16	Feirense	13	2	1	10	-9	7
17	Pacos Ferreira	13	1	2	10	-18	5
18	Vitoria Setubal	13	0	4	9	-21	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.