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Primeira Liga

Referee: Joao Capela

Sp Lisbon

S S S S T

4–2

Full-time

Estoril

T T T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Lisbon Estoril

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

83%

17%

Points per game

2,5

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,8

2,0

Scored

2,2

0,7

Conceded

0,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,5

-0,7

This season — Primeira Liga · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 50%

80%

20%

Points per game

2,4

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

60%

20%

Both score Ø 30%

40%

20%

Average goals

2,6

1,8

Scored

1,8

0,6

Conceded

0,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

65% Possession 35%

14 Shots 6

6 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 0

0 Goalkeeper saves 2

8 Corners 2

3 Offside 4

15 Free kicks against 13

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sp Lisbon 3. · Estoril 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	6	4	1	1	+7	13
2	Benfica	5	4	1	0	+7	13
3	Sp Lisbon	5	4	0	1	+5	12
4	Sp Braga	5	3	1	1	+4	10
5	Rio Ave	5	3	1	1	+2	10
6	Chaves	5	2	3	0	+2	9
7	Feirense	5	3	0	2	+0	9
8	Vitoria Setubal	5	2	2	1	+1	8
9	Belenenses	5	2	2	1	+0	8
10	Guimaraes	5	2	1	2	+0	7
11	Pacos Ferreira	5	1	2	2	+0	5
12	Boavista	6	1	2	3	-4	5
13	Moreirense	5	1	1	3	-3	4
14	Estoril	5	1	1	3	-3	4
15	Nacional	5	1	0	4	-4	3
16	Arouca	5	1	0	4	-4	3
17	Maritimo	5	1	0	4	-6	3
18	Tondela	5	0	2	3	-4	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	3	3	0	0	+6	9
2	Sp Lisbon	3	3	0	0	+6	9
3	Rio Ave	3	2	0	1	+1	6
4	Vitoria Setubal	3	2	0	1	+1	6
5	Sp Braga	2	1	1	0	+3	4
6	Benfica	2	1	1	0	+2	4
7	Guimaraes	3	1	1	1	+1	4
8	Boavista	3	1	1	1	+1	4
9	Belenenses	2	1	1	0	+1	4
10	Arouca	3	1	0	2	+0	3
11	Nacional	3	1	0	2	-1	3
12	Estoril	3	1	0	2	-2	3
13	Feirense	2	1	0	1	-2	3
14	Chaves	2	0	2	0	+0	2
15	Moreirense	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Pacos Ferreira	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	Tondela	3	0	1	2	-3	1
18	Maritimo	2	0	0	2	-3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	3	3	0	0	+5	9
2	Chaves	3	2	1	0	+2	7
3	Feirense	3	2	0	1	+2	6
4	Sp Braga	3	2	0	1	+1	6
5	Pacos Ferreira	3	1	1	1	+1	4
6	Porto	3	1	1	1	+1	4
7	Rio Ave	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Belenenses	3	1	1	1	-1	4
9	Guimaraes	2	1	0	1	-1	3
10	Sp Lisbon	2	1	0	1	-1	3
11	Moreirense	3	1	0	2	-2	3
12	Maritimo	3	1	0	2	-3	3
13	Vitoria Setubal	2	0	2	0	+0	2
14	Tondela	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Estoril	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Boavista	3	0	1	2	-5	1
17	Nacional	2	0	0	2	-3	0
18	Arouca	2	0	0	2	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.