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Primeira Liga
Referee: Joao Capela
0–1
Full-time
Moreirense
T S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Vitoria Setubal Moreirense
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 17%
17%
17%
Points per game
1,0
0,5
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
67%
83%
Both score Ø 83%
83%
83%
Average goals
2,8
3,8
Scored
1,2
1,3
Conceded
1,7
2,5
Goal diff per game
-0,5
-1,2
This season — Primeira Liga · 24/24 matches
Win Ø 25%
25%
25%
Points per game
1,2
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 59%
63%
54%
Average goals
3,3
3,0
Scored
1,5
1,2
Conceded
1,8
1,8
Goal diff per game
-0,4
-0,6
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

10 Shots 9
3 Shots on target 4
3 Goalkeeper saves 6
13 Corners 7
13 Free kicks against 26
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Vitoria Setubal 11. · Moreirense 15.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Benfica 25 20 1 4 +49 61
2 Sp Lisbon 25 18 5 2 +34 59
3 Porto 24 17 4 3 +30 55
4 Sp Braga 24 12 8 4 +23 44
5 Rio Ave 24 10 6 8 +1 36
6 Arouca 24 8 11 5 +6 35
7 Guimaraes 24 8 10 6 -1 34
8 Pacos Ferreira 25 8 8 9 -1 32
9 Estoril 24 8 6 10 -4 30
10 Maritimo 25 8 5 12 -12 29
11 Vitoria Setubal 24 6 10 8 -9 28
12 Belenenses 24 7 7 10 -21 28
13 Nacional 24 6 7 11 -9 25
14 U. Madeira 24 6 6 12 -16 24
15 Moreirense 24 6 5 13 -14 23
16 Boavista 24 5 6 13 -15 21
17 Academica 24 4 7 13 -20 19
18 Tondela 24 3 4 17 -21 13

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Vitoria Setubal Moreirense
Fábio Pacheco 🟨
25′
45′
🟨 Filipe Gonçalves
Half-time 0–0
André Horta 🔁
↦ Ruca
46′
63′
Nildo Petrolina 0–1
Salim Cissé 🔁
↦ A. Issoko
68′
M. Makuszewski 🔁
↦ Hassan
72′
76′
🔁 Fábio Espinho
↦ Vitor Gomes
78′
🔁 Alan Schons
↦ Filipe Gonçalves
87′
🔁 Pedro Coronas
↦ Iuri Medeiros
Full-time 0–1

Line-ups

Vitoria Setubal

82 Ricardo G
2 Tiago Valente
22 William Alves D
21 Nuno Pinto D
44 Miguel Lourenço
6 Fabio Pacheco M
90 Ruca M
18 André Claro F
11 Costinha M
19 A. Issoko D
9 Hassan
Bench (7)
77 André Horta
92 Salim Cissé
17 M. Makuszewski
1 L. Raeder
8 Paulo Tavares
20 T. Gorupec
66 Ricardo Dani

Moreirense

51 I. Stefanović
6 Evaldo
26 Marcelo Oliveira D
95 P. Sagna D
3 André Micael D
23 Vitor Gomes M
66 Filipe Gonçalves M
16 Nildo Petrolina M
60 João Palhinha M
99 Rafael Martins F
45 Iuri Medeiros F
Bench (7)
10 Fábio Espinho
7 Alan Schons
12 Pedro Coronas
1 Nilson
4 Danielson
11 E. Ohemeng
29 E. Boateng

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Joao Capela · 25 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,8 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
17,6 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,48 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.