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Primeira Liga

Referee: Joao Capela

Academica

T S U U U

1–1

Full-time

Arouca

U U U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Academica Arouca

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

1,0

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 9%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

1,7

1,2

Scored

0,7

0,5

Conceded

1,0

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 15%

10%

20%

Points per game

0,6

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 20%

20%

Both score Ø 40%

40%

Average goals

2,1

1,6

Scored

0,5

0,8

Conceded

1,6

0,8

Goal diff per game

-1,1

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1 Shots 1

1 Shots on target 1

0 Free kicks against 0

4 Yellow cards 1

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Academica 17. · Arouca 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	10	8	2	0	+14	26
2	Porto	10	7	3	0	+15	24
3	Sp Braga	10	6	2	2	+13	20
4	Benfica	9	6	0	3	+15	18
5	Rio Ave	10	5	3	2	+5	18
6	Vitoria Setubal	11	3	6	2	+2	15
7	Nacional	11	4	2	5	+0	14
8	Estoril	10	4	2	4	-3	14
9	Pacos Ferreira	10	4	2	4	-3	14
10	Maritimo	11	4	2	5	-4	14
11	Guimaraes	11	3	4	4	-6	13
12	Belenenses	10	3	4	3	-10	13
13	Arouca	10	2	6	2	+0	12
14	Boavista	11	2	3	6	-7	9
15	U. Madeira	9	1	4	4	-3	7
16	Moreirense	10	1	4	5	-7	7
17	Academica	10	1	3	6	-11	6
18	Tondela	11	1	2	8	-10	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	6	5	1	0	+12	16
2	Benfica	6	5	0	1	+13	15
3	Sp Braga	5	4	1	0	+13	13
4	Rio Ave	5	4	0	1	+3	12
5	Nacional	5	3	2	0	+5	11
6	Belenenses	5	3	2	0	+4	11
7	Estoril	5	3	2	0	+4	11
8	Sp Lisbon	4	3	1	0	+6	10
9	Maritimo	5	3	1	1	+3	10
10	Vitoria Setubal	6	1	5	0	+1	8
11	Pacos Ferreira	5	2	1	2	-1	7
12	U. Madeira	4	1	2	1	+0	5
13	Guimaraes	5	1	2	2	-1	5
14	Arouca	5	1	2	2	-2	5
15	Moreirense	5	1	2	2	-2	5
16	Boavista	5	1	1	3	-2	4
17	Tondela	6	1	1	4	-6	4
18	Academica	5	1	1	3	-7	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	6	5	1	0	+8	16
2	Porto	4	2	2	0	+3	8
3	Guimaraes	6	2	2	2	-5	8
4	Arouca	5	1	4	0	+2	7
5	Vitoria Setubal	5	2	1	2	+1	7
6	Sp Braga	5	2	1	2	+0	7
7	Pacos Ferreira	5	2	1	2	-2	7
8	Rio Ave	5	1	3	1	+2	6
9	Boavista	6	1	2	3	-5	5
10	Maritimo	6	1	1	4	-7	4
11	Benfica	3	1	0	2	+2	3
12	Nacional	6	1	0	5	-5	3
13	Estoril	5	1	0	4	-7	3
14	U. Madeira	5	0	2	3	-3	2
15	Academica	5	0	2	3	-4	2
16	Moreirense	5	0	2	3	-5	2
17	Belenenses	5	0	2	3	-14	2
18	Tondela	5	0	1	4	-4	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.