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Primeira Liga

Referee: Rui Oliveira

Belenenses

S U S T S

0–2

Full-time

Arouca

T T U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Belenenses Arouca

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 92%

83%

100%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

4,0

3,5

Scored

1,7

1,8

Conceded

2,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 32%

32%

Points per game

1,3

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 62%

68%

55%

Both score Ø 60%

55%

64%

Average goals

3,5

2,6

Scored

1,4

Conceded

2,2

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

69% Possession 31%

22 Shots 14

6 Shots on target 7

7 Blocked shots 1

5 Goalkeeper saves 5

11 Corners 4

1 Offside 1

0 Free kicks against 0

3 Yellow cards 6

1 Red cards 2

The table before the match Belenenses 9. · Arouca 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	23	18	1	4	+46	55
2	Sp Lisbon	22	17	4	1	+33	55
3	Porto	22	15	4	3	+28	49
4	Sp Braga	22	12	6	4	+23	42
5	Rio Ave	23	9	6	8	+0	33
6	Guimaraes	22	8	8	6	-1	32
7	Arouca	22	7	10	5	+4	31
8	Pacos Ferreira	23	8	7	8	+2	31
9	Belenenses	22	7	7	8	-18	28
10	Vitoria Setubal	22	6	9	7	-6	27
11	Estoril	23	7	6	10	-7	27
12	U. Madeira	23	6	6	11	-14	24
13	Moreirense	22	6	5	11	-12	23
14	Maritimo	22	6	4	12	-14	22
15	Nacional	22	5	6	11	-12	21
16	Boavista	22	5	6	11	-12	21
17	Academica	23	4	7	12	-19	19
18	Tondela	22	2	4	16	-21	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	11	9	0	2	+25	27
2	Sp Lisbon	11	8	3	0	+13	27
3	Porto	11	8	2	1	+15	26
4	Sp Braga	10	7	2	1	+20	23
5	Rio Ave	12	7	1	4	+4	22
6	U. Madeira	12	5	4	3	+2	19
7	Arouca	11	5	3	3	+5	18
8	Estoril	11	5	3	3	+3	18
9	Pacos Ferreira	12	5	2	5	+3	17
10	Guimaraes	12	4	4	4	+2	16
11	Belenenses	10	4	4	2	-3	16
12	Academica	12	4	4	4	-5	16
13	Nacional	11	4	3	4	-2	15
14	Maritimo	11	4	2	5	+2	14
15	Vitoria Setubal	11	2	7	2	-6	13
16	Boavista	11	2	4	5	-6	10
17	Moreirense	11	2	3	6	-7	9
18	Tondela	11	1	2	8	-12	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	12	9	1	2	+21	28
2	Sp Lisbon	11	9	1	1	+20	28
3	Porto	11	7	2	2	+13	23
4	Sp Braga	12	5	4	3	+3	19
5	Guimaraes	10	4	4	2	-3	16
6	Vitoria Setubal	11	4	2	5	+0	14
7	Pacos Ferreira	11	3	5	3	-1	14
8	Moreirense	11	4	2	5	-5	14
9	Arouca	11	2	7	2	-1	13
10	Belenenses	12	3	3	6	-15	12
11	Rio Ave	11	2	5	4	-4	11
12	Boavista	11	3	2	6	-6	11
13	Estoril	12	2	3	7	-10	9
14	Maritimo	11	2	2	7	-16	8
15	Nacional	11	1	3	7	-10	6
16	Tondela	11	1	2	8	-9	5
17	U. Madeira	11	1	2	8	-16	5
18	Academica	11	0	3	8	-14	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.