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Eredivisie

Referee: Serdar Gozubuyuk

Ajax

S S S S S

4–1

Full-time

Heracles

T T S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajax Heracles

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

100%

33%

Points per game

3,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 42%

17%

67%

Average goals

2,2

3,5

Scored

2,0

1,8

Conceded

0,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,8

+0,2

This season — Eredivisie · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 52%

74%

30%

Points per game

2,4

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

43%

57%

Both score Ø 52%

39%

65%

Average goals

2,7

2,9

Scored

2,0

1,4

Conceded

0,6

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,4

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

64% Possession 36%

33 Shots 10

13 Shots on target 5

10 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 9

12 Corners 4

0 Offside 3

8 Free kicks against 16

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ajax 2. · Heracles 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Feyenoord	24	20	3	1	+48	63
2	Ajax	23	17	4	2	+33	55
3	PSV Eindhoven	24	15	7	2	+27	52
4	Vitesse	24	10	6	8	+6	36
5	Utrecht	21	10	6	5	+6	36
6	Heerenveen	22	10	5	7	+14	35
7	Twente	24	9	8	7	+2	35
8	AZ Alkmaar	22	8	10	4	+7	34
9	Willem II	24	7	8	9	-6	29
10	Heracles	23	7	7	9	-3	28
11	Nijmegen	24	6	7	11	-17	25
12	Groningen	23	5	9	9	-4	24
13	Zwolle	24	6	6	12	-22	24
14	Sparta Rotterdam	24	5	7	12	-11	22
15	Roda	24	3	11	10	-17	20
16	Go Ahead Eagles	24	5	4	15	-18	19
17	Excelsior	24	4	7	13	-21	19
18	Den Haag	24	5	3	16	-24	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Feyenoord	13	11	2	0	+30	35
2	PSV Eindhoven	12	8	3	1	+12	27
3	Ajax	11	8	2	1	+18	26
4	Heerenveen	11	6	3	2	+9	21
5	Twente	12	6	3	3	+5	21
6	Heracles	12	5	3	4	+5	18
7	Utrecht	10	5	2	3	+4	17
8	Vitesse	12	5	2	5	+1	17
9	Nijmegen	12	4	4	4	+0	16
10	AZ Alkmaar	11	3	6	2	+2	15
11	Willem II	13	3	5	5	-6	14
12	Sparta Rotterdam	11	3	4	4	+0	13
13	Excelsior	12	3	4	5	-3	13
14	Go Ahead Eagles	12	4	1	7	-5	13
15	Zwolle	12	3	3	6	-11	12
16	Roda	12	2	5	5	-4	11
17	Groningen	11	2	5	4	-7	11
18	Den Haag	12	3	2	7	-7	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	12	9	2	1	+15	29
2	Feyenoord	11	9	1	1	+18	28
3	PSV Eindhoven	12	7	4	1	+15	25
4	Vitesse	12	5	4	3	+5	19
5	AZ Alkmaar	11	5	4	2	+5	19
6	Utrecht	11	5	4	2	+2	19
7	Willem II	11	4	3	4	+0	15
8	Heerenveen	11	4	2	5	+5	14
9	Twente	12	3	5	4	-3	14
10	Groningen	12	3	4	5	+3	13
11	Zwolle	12	3	3	6	-11	12
12	Heracles	11	2	4	5	-8	10
13	Sparta Rotterdam	13	2	3	8	-11	9
14	Roda	12	1	6	5	-13	9
15	Nijmegen	12	2	3	7	-17	9
16	Den Haag	12	2	1	9	-17	7
17	Go Ahead Eagles	12	1	3	8	-13	6
18	Excelsior	12	1	3	8	-18	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.