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Eredivisie

Referee: Bjorn Kuipers

AZ Alkmaar

T T S U U

1–1

Full-time

Excelsior

T U U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

AZ Alkmaar Excelsior

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

1,0

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 75%

100%

50%

Average goals

3,0

2,7

Scored

1,3

0,5

Conceded

1,7

2,2

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-1,7

This season — Eredivisie · 22/24 matches

Win Ø 27%

36%

17%

Points per game

1,5

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

55%

58%

Both score Ø 68%

73%

63%

Average goals

3,1

3,0

Scored

1,7

1,1

Conceded

1,4

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,9

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

53% Possession 47%

12 Shots 12

3 Shots on target 6

3 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 8

0 Offside 3

13 Free kicks against 22

5 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match AZ Alkmaar 8. · Excelsior 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Feyenoord	24	20	3	1	+48	63
2	Ajax	24	18	4	2	+36	58
3	PSV Eindhoven	25	16	7	2	+31	55
4	Twente	25	10	8	7	+3	38
5	Heerenveen	23	10	6	7	+14	36
6	Utrecht	21	10	6	5	+6	36
7	Vitesse	25	10	6	9	+4	36
8	AZ Alkmaar	22	8	10	4	+7	34
9	Willem II	25	7	8	10	-7	29
10	Heracles	24	7	7	10	-6	28
11	Zwolle	25	7	6	12	-20	27
12	Nijmegen	24	6	7	11	-17	25
13	Groningen	23	5	9	9	-4	24
14	Sparta Rotterdam	24	5	7	12	-11	22
15	Go Ahead Eagles	25	5	5	15	-18	20
16	Roda	25	3	11	11	-21	20
17	Excelsior	24	4	7	13	-21	19
18	Den Haag	24	5	3	16	-24	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Feyenoord	13	11	2	0	+30	35
2	PSV Eindhoven	13	9	3	1	+16	30
3	Ajax	12	9	2	1	+21	29
4	Twente	13	7	3	3	+6	24
5	Heerenveen	12	6	4	2	+9	22
6	Heracles	12	5	3	4	+5	18
7	Utrecht	10	5	2	3	+4	17
8	Vitesse	12	5	2	5	+1	17
9	Nijmegen	12	4	4	4	+0	16
10	AZ Alkmaar	11	3	6	2	+2	15
11	Zwolle	13	4	3	6	-9	15
12	Willem II	13	3	5	5	-6	14
13	Sparta Rotterdam	11	3	4	4	+0	13
14	Excelsior	12	3	4	5	-3	13
15	Go Ahead Eagles	12	4	1	7	-5	13
16	Roda	12	2	5	5	-4	11
17	Groningen	11	2	5	4	-7	11
18	Den Haag	12	3	2	7	-7	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	12	9	2	1	+15	29
2	Feyenoord	11	9	1	1	+18	28
3	PSV Eindhoven	12	7	4	1	+15	25
4	AZ Alkmaar	11	5	4	2	+5	19
5	Vitesse	13	5	4	4	+3	19
6	Utrecht	11	5	4	2	+2	19
7	Willem II	12	4	3	5	-1	15
8	Heerenveen	11	4	2	5	+5	14
9	Twente	12	3	5	4	-3	14
10	Groningen	12	3	4	5	+3	13
11	Zwolle	12	3	3	6	-11	12
12	Heracles	12	2	4	6	-11	10
13	Sparta Rotterdam	13	2	3	8	-11	9
14	Nijmegen	12	2	3	7	-17	9
15	Roda	13	1	6	6	-17	9
16	Go Ahead Eagles	13	1	4	8	-13	7
17	Den Haag	12	2	1	9	-17	7
18	Excelsior	12	1	3	8	-18	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.