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Eredivisie
Referee: Pol van Boekel
Ajax
U S S S S
2–0
Full-time

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajax Sparta Rotterdam
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
67%
0%
Points per game
2,2
0,2
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
33%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
33%
67%
Average goals
2,2
2,8
Scored
1,7
1,0
Conceded
0,5
1,8
Goal diff per game
+1,2
-0,8
This season — Eredivisie · 21/21 matches
Win Ø 45%
71%
19%
Points per game
2,3
0,9
Over 2.5 Ø 53%
48%
57%
Both score Ø 55%
43%
67%
Average goals
2,8
3,1
Scored
2,1
1,3
Conceded
0,7
1,8
Goal diff per game
+1,4
-0,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

76% Possession 24%
20 Shots 7
7 Shots on target 2
6 Blocked shots 1
2 Goalkeeper saves 4
9 Corners 0
3 Offside 3
13 Free kicks against 16
0 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Ajax 2. · Sparta Rotterdam 16.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Feyenoord 22 18 3 1 +46 57
2 Ajax 21 15 4 2 +30 49
3 PSV Eindhoven 21 13 7 1 +23 46
4 Vitesse 22 9 6 7 +5 33
5 Heerenveen 19 9 5 5 +13 32
6 Twente 22 8 7 7 +1 31
7 Utrecht 18 8 6 4 +6 30
8 AZ Alkmaar 19 7 8 4 +6 29
9 Heracles 22 6 7 9 -7 25
10 Willem II 22 6 7 9 -8 25
11 Nijmegen 22 6 7 9 -14 25
12 Groningen 21 5 8 8 -3 23
13 Zwolle 22 6 5 11 -20 23
14 Excelsior 22 4 7 11 -15 19
15 Go Ahead Eagles 22 5 4 13 -15 19
16 Sparta Rotterdam 21 4 6 11 -10 18
17 Roda 22 2 11 9 -15 17
18 Den Haag 22 5 2 15 -23 17

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Ajax Sparta Rotterdam
23′
🟨 David Mendes
35′
🟨 Michel Breuer
1–0 B. Traoré
K. Dolberg
45′
Half-time 1–0
46′
🔁 J. Saksela
↦ Jerson Cabral
2–0 K. Dolberg
H. Ziyech
49′
61′
🟨 Denzel Dumfries
J. Riedewald 🔁
↦ D. Sinkgraven
72′
77′
🔁 C. Goodwin
↦ D. Mendes da Silva
J. Kluivert 🔁
↦ B. Traoré
80′
85′
🔁 M. Pusic
↦ Iván Calero
F. de Jong 🔁
↦ L. Schöne
88′
Full-time 2–0

Line-ups

Ajax

4-3-3
24 A. Onana G
26 N. Viergever D
3 J. Veltman D
5 D. Sánchez D
10 D. Klaassen M
22 H. Ziyech M
8 D. Sinkgraven D
20 L. Schöne M
9 B. Traoré F
11 A. Younes F
25 K. Dolberg F
Bench (9)
4 J. Riedewald
45 J. Kluivert
21 F. de Jong
2 K. Tete
16 H. Westermann
19 M. Cassierra
30 D. van de Beek
33 D. Boer
34 A. Nouri

Coach: P. Bosz

Sparta Rotterdam

4-3-3
1 R. Kortsmit G
5 M. Breuer D
8 M. Dijkstra M
2 D. Dumfries D
3 S. Floranus D
6 R. van Drongelen D
10 D. Mendes da Silva M
7 Jerson Cabral F
4 R. Sanusi M
11 Iván Calero M
9 Z. El Azzouzi F
Bench (12)
12 J. Saksela
16 C. Goodwin
22 M. Pusic
17 S. Spierings
14 B. Vriends
13 F. Pinteaux
20 M. Verrips
19 M. Pogba
30 R. Kieboom
21 T. Verhaar
15 K. Dougall
18 P. van Moorsel

Coach: A. Pastoor

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Pol van Boekel · 79 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,4 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
15,8 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.