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Primeira Liga

Referee: Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo

Porto

S S U S S

2–1

Full-time

Sp Lisbon

S S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Porto Sp Lisbon

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 83%

83%

Points per game

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

3,0

3,5

Scored

2,7

3,0

Conceded

0,3

0,5

Goal diff per game

+2,3

+2,5

This season — Primeira Liga · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 75%

79%

70%

Points per game

2,5

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

58%

64%

Both score Ø 50%

36%

64%

Average goals

2,8

3,1

Scored

2,2

Conceded

0,6

0,9

Goal diff per game

+1,6

+1,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

61% Possession 39%

28 Shots 2

8 Shots on target 1

9 Blocked shots 0

0 Goalkeeper saves 4

17 Corners 1

4 Offside 0

18 Free kicks against 11

4 Yellow cards 4

1 Red cards 1

The table before the match Porto 2. · Sp Lisbon 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	33	27	3	3	+69	84
2	Porto	33	26	4	3	+53	82
3	Sp Lisbon	33	23	5	5	+40	74
4	Sp Braga	34	21	4	9	+19	67
5	Moreirense	33	16	4	13	-3	52
6	Guimaraes	33	14	7	12	+10	49
7	Rio Ave	34	12	9	13	-2	45
8	Boavista	34	13	5	16	-6	44
9	Belenenses	34	10	13	11	-9	43
10	Santa Clara	33	11	9	13	+1	42
11	Portimonense	34	11	6	17	-15	39
12	Maritimo	34	12	3	19	-18	39
13	Vitoria Setubal	34	8	12	14	-11	36
14	Aves	34	10	6	18	-14	36
15	Tondela	33	8	8	17	-17	32
16	Chaves	33	8	8	17	-20	32
17	Nacional	34	7	7	20	-40	28
18	Feirense	34	3	11	20	-37	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	17	14	2	1	+25	44
2	Porto	16	14	0	2	+31	42
3	Benfica	16	13	2	1	+43	41
4	Sp Braga	17	13	1	3	+17	40
5	Guimaraes	17	10	4	3	+15	34
6	Boavista	17	10	1	6	+7	31
7	Portimonense	17	8	4	5	+5	28
8	Moreirense	16	8	3	5	+1	27
9	Maritimo	17	8	2	7	+0	26
10	Belenenses	17	6	5	6	-1	23
11	Rio Ave	17	5	6	6	-2	21
12	Tondela	16	6	3	7	-5	21
13	Santa Clara	17	5	5	7	-2	20
14	Aves	17	5	3	9	-3	18
15	Chaves	17	4	6	7	-3	18
16	Vitoria Setubal	17	4	6	7	-5	18
17	Nacional	17	5	3	9	-10	18
18	Feirense	17	2	6	9	-12	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	17	14	1	2	+26	43
2	Porto	17	12	4	1	+22	40
3	Sp Lisbon	16	9	3	4	+15	30
4	Sp Braga	17	8	3	6	+2	27
5	Moreirense	17	8	1	8	-4	25
6	Rio Ave	17	7	3	7	+0	24
7	Santa Clara	16	6	4	6	+3	22
8	Belenenses	17	4	8	5	-8	20
9	Vitoria Setubal	17	4	6	7	-6	18
10	Aves	17	5	3	9	-11	18
11	Guimaraes	16	4	3	9	-5	15
12	Chaves	16	4	2	10	-17	14
13	Boavista	17	3	4	10	-13	13
14	Maritimo	17	4	1	12	-18	13
15	Tondela	17	2	5	10	-12	11
16	Portimonense	17	3	2	12	-20	11
17	Nacional	17	2	4	11	-30	10
18	Feirense	17	1	5	11	-25	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.