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Bundesliga

Referee: Deniz Aytekin

Mainz

T S T U S

4–2

Full-time

Hoffenheim

S S T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz Hoffenheim

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,5

3,8

Scored

2,3

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,8

This season — Bundesliga · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 36%

33%

39%

Points per game

1,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

64%

70%

Both score Ø 69%

55%

82%

Average goals

2,9

3,5

Scored

1,3

2,1

Conceded

1,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

56% Possession 44%

22 Shots 19

12 Shots on target 7

3 Blocked shots 8

5 Goalkeeper saves 8

8 Corners 5

1 Offside 0

18 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Mainz 12. · Hoffenheim 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	33	23	6	4	+52	75
2	Dortmund	33	22	7	4	+35	73
3	RB Leipzig	33	19	9	5	+35	66
4	M'gladbach	33	16	7	10	+15	55
5	Leverkusen	33	17	4	12	+13	55
6	Ein Frankfurt	33	15	9	9	+16	54
7	Wolfsburg	33	15	7	11	+5	52
8	Hoffenheim	33	13	12	8	+20	51
9	Werder Bremen	33	13	11	9	+8	50
10	Hertha	33	11	10	12	-4	43
11	Fortuna Dusseldorf	33	12	5	16	-17	41
12	Mainz	33	11	7	15	-13	40
13	Freiburg	33	7	12	14	-19	33
14	Augsburg	33	8	8	17	-13	32
15	Schalke 04	33	8	8	17	-18	32
16	Stuttgart	33	7	6	20	-38	27
17	Hannover	33	5	6	22	-39	21
18	Nurnberg	33	3	10	20	-38	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Dortmund	17	14	2	1	+27	44
2	Bayern Munich	16	12	3	1	+31	39
3	RB Leipzig	17	10	6	1	+25	36
4	M'gladbach	16	9	3	4	+11	30
5	Leverkusen	17	9	2	6	+7	29
6	Ein Frankfurt	17	8	4	5	+11	28
7	Werder Bremen	16	7	6	3	+8	27
8	Hoffenheim	17	7	5	5	+8	26
9	Mainz	16	7	5	4	+7	26
10	Wolfsburg	16	7	5	4	+6	26
11	Hertha	16	6	6	4	+3	24
12	Fortuna Dusseldorf	16	8	0	8	-2	24
13	Freiburg	16	5	7	4	+1	22
14	Stuttgart	17	6	4	7	-5	22
15	Augsburg	17	5	4	8	+1	19
16	Nurnberg	17	3	7	7	-6	16
17	Hannover	17	5	1	11	-11	16
18	Schalke 04	16	4	2	10	-12	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	17	11	3	3	+21	36
2	RB Leipzig	16	9	3	4	+10	30
3	Dortmund	16	8	5	3	+8	29
4	Leverkusen	16	8	2	6	+6	26
5	Ein Frankfurt	16	7	5	4	+5	26
6	Wolfsburg	17	8	2	7	-1	26
7	Hoffenheim	16	6	7	3	+12	25
8	M'gladbach	17	7	4	6	+4	25
9	Werder Bremen	17	6	5	6	+0	23
10	Hertha	17	5	4	8	-7	19
11	Schalke 04	17	4	6	7	-6	18
12	Fortuna Dusseldorf	17	4	5	8	-15	17
13	Mainz	17	4	2	11	-20	14
14	Augsburg	16	3	4	9	-14	13
15	Freiburg	17	2	5	10	-20	11
16	Hannover	16	0	5	11	-28	5
17	Stuttgart	16	1	2	13	-33	5
18	Nurnberg	16	0	3	13	-32	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.