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Bundesliga
Referee: Harm Osmers
FC Koln
T U S T T
2–0
Full-time
Leverkusen
T S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

FC Koln Leverkusen
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
17%
50%
Points per game
0,7
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 58%
83%
33%
Both score Ø 67%
100%
33%
Average goals
4,2
2,0
Scored
1,7
1,0
Conceded
2,5
1,0
Goal diff per game
-0,8
+0,0
This season — Bundesliga · 26/26 matches
Win Ø 31%
15%
46%
Points per game
0,7
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 58%
58%
58%
Both score Ø 58%
54%
62%
Average goals
2,8
3,1
Scored
1,0
1,8
Conceded
1,9
1,3
Goal diff per game
-0,9
+0,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

49% Possession 51%
7 Shots 10
3 Shots on target 3
2 Blocked shots 2
3 Goalkeeper saves 1
2 Corners 2
1 Offside 1
16 Free kicks against 7
3 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 1
The table before the match FC Koln 18. · Leverkusen 5.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Bayern Munich 26 21 3 2 +47 66
2 Schalke 04 27 14 7 6 +11 49
3 Dortmund 27 13 9 5 +21 48
4 Ein Frankfurt 27 13 6 8 +8 45
5 Leverkusen 26 12 8 6 +14 44
6 RB Leipzig 26 11 7 8 +4 40
7 Hoffenheim 27 10 9 8 +5 39
8 Stuttgart 27 11 4 12 -5 37
9 M'gladbach 27 10 6 11 -6 36
10 Augsburg 27 9 8 10 +1 35
11 Hertha 27 8 11 8 +0 35
12 Werder Bremen 27 8 9 10 -2 33
13 Hannover 27 8 8 11 -6 32
14 Freiburg 27 6 12 9 -18 30
15 Wolfsburg 27 4 13 10 -9 25
16 Mainz 27 6 7 14 -17 25
17 Hamburg 27 4 6 17 -24 18
18 FC Koln 26 4 5 17 -24 17

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

FC Koln Leverkusen
Marco Höger 🟨
3′
1–0 Y. Ōsako
L. Bittencourt
9′
33′
🟥 Lucas Alario
Dominique Heintz 🟨
35′
41′
🟨 Wendell
Half-time 1–0
46′
🔁 J. Pohjanpalo
↦ J. Baumgartlinger
46′
🔁 B. Henrichs
↦ T. Jedvaj
S. Özcan 🔁
↦ M. Höger
59′
Leonardo Bittencourt 🟨
61′
2–0 S. Zoller
69′
C. Clemens 🔁
↦ L. Bittencourt
71′
74′
🔁 K. Bellarabi
↦ L. Bailey
C. Pizarro 🔁
↦ S. Zoller
80′
Full-time 2–0

Line-ups

FC Koln

3-4-2-1
1 T. Horn G
5 D. Maroh D
3 D. Heintz D
22 Jorge Meré D
7 M. Risse M
6 M. Höger M
14 J. Hector M
21 L. Bittencourt M
41 V. Koziello M
11 S. Zoller F
13 Y. Ōsako F
Bench (7)
20 S. Özcan
17 C. Clemens
39 C. Pizarro
15 J. Córdoba
18 T. Kessler
24 L. Klünter
33 M. Lehmann

Coach: S. Ruthenbeck

Leverkusen

4-2-3-1
1 B. Leno G
5 S. Bender D
18 Wendell D
16 T. Jedvaj D
4 J. Tah D
20 C. Aránguiz M
15 J. Baumgartlinger M
29 K. Havertz M
13 L. Alario F
10 J. Brandt M
9 L. Bailey M
Bench (7)
17 J. Pohjanpalo
39 B. Henrichs
38 K. Bellarabi
3 P. Retsos
21 D. Kohr
28 R. Özcan
37 M. Frey

Coach: H. Herrlich

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Harm Osmers · 60 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,9 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,1 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,17 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.