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Serie A

Referee: Maurizio Mariani

Milan

U S S S S

3–2

Full-time

Chievo

T T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Chievo

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

83%

17%

Points per game

2,7

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

33%

17%

Both score Ø 25%

33%

17%

Average goals

2,2

1,5

Scored

1,8

0,3

Conceded

0,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,5

-0,8

This season — Serie A · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 37%

52%

22%

Points per game

1,7

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

48%

44%

Both score Ø 48%

44%

52%

Average goals

2,5

Scored

1,4

0,9

Conceded

1,1

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

71% Possession 29%

19 Shots 6

6 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 2

0 Goalkeeper saves 3

10 Corners 1

0 Offside 4

13 Free kicks against 18

3 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Milan 6. · Chievo 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	29	24	3	2	+52	75
2	Napoli	28	22	4	2	+43	70
3	Roma	28	17	5	6	+24	56
4	Inter	28	15	10	3	+26	55
5	Lazio	28	16	5	7	+30	53
6	Milan	27	14	5	8	+8	47
7	Sampdoria	28	13	5	10	+4	44
8	Atalanta	27	11	8	8	+7	41
9	Fiorentina	27	10	8	9	+4	38
10	Torino	27	8	12	7	+1	36
11	Udinese	28	10	3	15	-4	33
12	Bologna	28	10	3	15	-7	33
13	Genoa	27	8	6	13	-7	30
14	Sassuolo	28	7	6	15	-30	27
15	Cagliari	27	7	5	15	-18	26
16	Chievo	27	6	7	14	-21	25
17	Spal	29	5	10	14	-22	25
18	Crotone	27	6	6	15	-21	24
19	Verona	27	6	4	17	-26	22
20	Benevento	27	3	1	23	-43	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	14	12	1	1	+30	37
2	Napoli	14	10	2	2	+20	32
3	Inter	15	9	5	1	+16	32
4	Sampdoria	15	10	2	3	+14	32
5	Roma	15	9	1	5	+10	28
6	Lazio	13	7	2	4	+17	23
7	Milan	12	7	2	3	+2	23
8	Atalanta	13	6	4	3	+8	22
9	Fiorentina	14	6	4	4	+2	22
10	Torino	13	5	5	3	+8	20
11	Bologna	15	5	3	7	-1	18
12	Udinese	14	5	2	7	+1	17
13	Crotone	14	4	4	6	-4	16
14	Chievo	13	4	4	5	-4	16
15	Spal	14	3	6	5	-8	15
16	Cagliari	14	4	2	8	-9	14
17	Verona	14	4	1	9	-13	13
18	Genoa	13	3	2	8	-6	11
19	Sassuolo	14	2	5	7	-12	11
20	Benevento	13	3	1	9	-15	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	14	12	2	0	+23	38
2	Juventus	15	12	2	1	+22	38
3	Lazio	15	9	3	3	+13	30
4	Roma	13	8	4	1	+14	28
5	Milan	15	7	3	5	+6	24
6	Inter	13	6	5	2	+10	23
7	Atalanta	14	5	4	5	-1	19
8	Genoa	14	5	4	5	-1	19
9	Fiorentina	13	4	4	5	+2	16
10	Udinese	14	5	1	8	-5	16
11	Torino	14	3	7	4	-7	16
12	Sassuolo	14	5	1	8	-18	16
13	Bologna	13	5	0	8	-6	15
14	Cagliari	13	3	3	7	-9	12
15	Sampdoria	13	3	3	7	-10	12
16	Spal	15	2	4	9	-14	10
17	Verona	13	2	3	8	-13	9
18	Chievo	14	2	3	9	-17	9
19	Crotone	13	2	2	9	-17	8
20	Benevento	14	0	0	14	-28	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.