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Ligue 1

Referee: Benoît Bastien

Montpellier

T T S S T

0–3

Full-time

Lille

U S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Montpellier Lille

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

3,0

2,0

Scored

1,2

Conceded

1,8

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,3

This season — Ligue 1 · 34/34 matches

Win Ø 31%

29%

32%

Points per game

1,1

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

53%

41%

Both score Ø 56%

62%

50%

Average goals

3,1

2,2

Scored

1,4

1,0

Conceded

1,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

61% Possession 39%

18 Shots 11

7 Shots on target 5

5 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 7

8 Corners 3

3 Offside 0

7 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Montpellier 13. · Lille 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Monaco	34	26	5	3	+66	83
2	Paris SG	34	25	5	4	+48	80
3	Nice	34	21	11	2	+28	74
4	Lyon	35	18	4	13	+26	58
5	Bordeaux	34	15	10	9	+10	55
6	Marseille	34	14	10	10	+10	52
7	St Etienne	33	11	13	9	+6	46
8	Nantes	34	12	9	13	-14	45
9	Rennes	34	10	14	10	-6	44
10	Guingamp	34	12	8	14	-7	44
11	Toulouse	35	10	12	13	-3	42
12	Lille	34	11	7	16	-7	40
13	Montpellier	34	10	9	15	-10	39
14	Angers	35	11	6	18	-13	39
15	Metz	34	9	9	16	-35	36
16	Lorient	34	10	4	20	-23	34
17	Caen	34	9	6	19	-25	33
18	Dijon	34	7	11	16	-10	32
19	Nancy	34	8	8	18	-19	32
20	Bastia	34	6	11	17	-22	29

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Monaco	17	15	1	1	+44	46
2	Nice	17	13	4	0	+23	43
3	Paris SG	17	12	5	0	+30	41
4	Marseille	17	11	4	2	+18	37
5	Lyon	17	11	0	6	+19	33
6	Guingamp	16	10	3	3	+12	33
7	Rennes	17	9	6	2	+11	33
8	Bordeaux	18	9	5	4	+8	32
9	Toulouse	17	8	5	4	+11	29
10	Montpellier	17	8	5	4	+11	29
11	St Etienne	17	7	8	2	+11	29
12	Angers	18	7	5	6	+4	26
13	Metz	17	6	6	5	-8	24
14	Dijon	17	6	5	6	+4	23
15	Lorient	17	7	2	8	-4	23
16	Caen	17	7	2	8	-11	23
17	Nantes	17	6	4	7	-9	22
18	Lille	17	6	3	8	-1	21
19	Nancy	17	6	3	8	-1	21
20	Bastia	17	3	10	4	+0	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	17	13	0	4	+18	39
2	Monaco	17	11	4	2	+22	37
3	Nice	17	8	7	2	+5	31
4	Lyon	18	7	4	7	+7	25
5	Bordeaux	16	6	5	5	+2	23
6	Nantes	17	6	5	6	-5	23
7	Lille	17	5	4	8	-6	19
8	St Etienne	16	4	5	7	-5	17
9	Marseille	17	3	6	8	-8	15
10	Toulouse	18	2	7	9	-14	13
11	Angers	17	4	1	12	-17	13
12	Metz	17	3	3	11	-27	12
13	Rennes	17	1	8	8	-17	11
14	Nancy	17	2	5	10	-18	11
15	Lorient	17	3	2	12	-19	11
16	Guingamp	18	2	5	11	-19	11
17	Caen	17	2	4	11	-14	10
18	Montpellier	17	2	4	11	-21	10
19	Bastia	17	3	1	13	-22	10
20	Dijon	17	1	6	10	-14	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.