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Championship

Referee: Chris Kavanagh

Derby

S S T U T

3–1

Full-time

Wolves

T T S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Wolves

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

3,2

1,5

Scored

1,5

0,5

Conceded

1,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,5

This season — Championship · 44/44 matches

Win Ø 37%

39%

34%

Points per game

1,4

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

39%

48%

Both score Ø 43%

34%

52%

Average goals

2,2

2,4

Scored

1,1

1,2

Conceded

1,1

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

56% Possession 44%

17 Shots 7

6 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 2

1 Offside 0

9 Free kicks against 8

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Derby 10. · Wolves 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	44	28	8	8	+35	92
2	Newcastle	45	28	7	10	+42	91
3	Huddersfield	41	24	6	11	+5	78
4	Reading	41	23	7	11	+6	76
5	Fulham	42	20	13	9	+23	73
6	Leeds	44	22	7	15	+14	73
7	Sheffield Weds	42	21	9	12	+12	72
8	Norwich	44	19	9	16	+12	66
9	Brentford	44	18	9	17	+12	63
10	Derby	44	17	12	15	+2	63
11	Preston	44	16	13	15	+2	61
12	Aston Villa	44	16	13	15	+0	61
13	Cardiff	45	16	11	18	-4	59
14	Barnsley	44	15	12	17	+0	57
15	Wolves	44	15	10	19	-3	55
16	Ipswich	44	13	16	15	-6	55
17	Bristol City	44	14	9	21	-6	51
18	Burton Albion	44	13	12	19	-12	51
19	QPR	44	14	8	22	-12	50
20	Nott'm Forest	44	13	9	22	-11	48
21	Birmingham	44	11	14	19	-22	47
22	Blackburn	44	10	15	19	-15	45
23	Wigan	44	10	11	23	-16	41
24	Rotherham	44	5	6	33	-58	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	22	17	3	2	+33	54
2	Reading	21	14	5	2	+17	47
3	Norwich	22	14	4	4	+29	46
4	Newcastle	22	14	3	5	+23	45
5	Leeds	22	14	3	5	+16	45
6	Sheffield Weds	21	14	2	5	+13	44
7	Huddersfield	20	14	2	4	+11	44
8	Aston Villa	22	12	7	3	+13	43
9	Brentford	22	11	5	6	+19	38
10	Preston	22	11	5	6	+14	38
11	Derby	22	10	8	4	+11	38
12	Nott'm Forest	22	11	4	7	+9	37
13	Bristol City	22	11	4	7	+8	37
14	Cardiff	23	11	4	8	+5	37
15	Fulham	21	9	7	5	+8	34
16	Ipswich	22	8	10	4	+7	34
17	Burton Albion	22	9	4	9	+0	31
18	Blackburn	22	7	8	7	-2	29
19	Barnsley	22	6	10	6	-1	28
20	QPR	22	8	4	10	-4	28
21	Birmingham	22	7	5	10	-8	26
22	Wolves	22	7	4	11	-6	25
23	Wigan	22	5	7	10	-7	22
24	Rotherham	22	5	5	12	-11	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Newcastle	23	14	4	5	+19	46
2	Fulham	21	11	6	4	+15	39
3	Brighton	22	11	5	6	+2	38
4	Huddersfield	21	10	4	7	-6	34
5	Wolves	22	8	6	8	+3	30
6	Barnsley	22	9	2	11	+1	29
7	Reading	20	9	2	9	-11	29
8	Sheffield Weds	21	7	7	7	-1	28
9	Leeds	22	8	4	10	-2	28
10	Brentford	22	7	4	11	-7	25
11	Derby	22	7	4	11	-9	25
12	Preston	22	5	8	9	-12	23
13	QPR	22	6	4	12	-8	22
14	Cardiff	22	5	7	10	-9	22
15	Ipswich	22	5	6	11	-13	21
16	Birmingham	22	4	9	9	-14	21
17	Burton Albion	22	4	8	10	-12	20
18	Norwich	22	5	5	12	-17	20
19	Wigan	22	5	4	13	-9	19
20	Aston Villa	22	4	6	12	-13	18
21	Blackburn	22	3	7	12	-13	16
22	Bristol City	22	3	5	14	-14	14
23	Nott'm Forest	22	2	5	15	-20	11
24	Rotherham	22	0	1	21	-47	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.