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Primeira Liga

Referee: Jorge de Sousa

Nacional

T T S T T

0–2

Full-time

Rio Ave

T S U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nacional Rio Ave

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,7

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

17%

67%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

1,8

2,5

Scored

0,5

1,3

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 27%

13%

40%

Points per game

0,7

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

37%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

37%

47%

Average goals

2,2

2,4

Scored

0,6

1,2

Conceded

1,6

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

41% Possession 59%

18 Shots 18

8 Shots on target 9

3 Blocked shots 3

7 Goalkeeper saves 8

10 Corners 6

6 Offside 2

17 Free kicks against 9

4 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nacional 18. · Rio Ave 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	30	22	6	2	+47	72
2	Porto	30	20	9	1	+49	69
3	Sp Lisbon	30	19	7	4	+31	64
4	Guimaraes	31	17	8	6	+16	59
5	Sp Braga	30	14	9	7	+15	51
6	Maritimo	30	13	8	9	+3	47
7	Rio Ave	30	12	6	12	-1	42
8	Chaves	30	8	13	9	-1	37
9	Feirense	30	10	6	14	-18	36
10	Boavista	30	8	11	11	-5	35
11	Vitoria Setubal	31	9	8	14	-8	35
12	Pacos Ferreira	30	7	11	12	-10	32
13	Belenenses	30	8	8	14	-17	32
14	Estoril	30	8	7	15	-8	31
15	Arouca	30	9	4	17	-20	31
16	Moreirense	30	6	7	17	-18	25
17	Tondela	30	5	8	17	-26	23
18	Nacional	30	4	8	18	-29	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	16	13	3	0	+32	42
2	Benfica	15	12	3	0	+34	39
3	Sp Lisbon	15	11	3	1	+22	36
4	Maritimo	15	10	3	2	+13	33
5	Sp Braga	15	9	4	2	+16	31
6	Guimaraes	15	7	5	3	+7	26
7	Chaves	15	6	7	2	+6	25
8	Pacos Ferreira	15	6	7	2	+5	25
9	Rio Ave	15	7	4	4	+4	25
10	Vitoria Setubal	16	7	3	6	+2	24
11	Arouca	15	6	1	8	-4	19
12	Tondela	15	5	3	7	-4	18
13	Belenenses	15	4	5	6	-4	17
14	Feirense	15	5	2	8	-10	17
15	Boavista	14	4	4	6	+2	16
16	Estoril	15	4	2	9	-6	14
17	Moreirense	15	2	7	6	-5	13
18	Nacional	15	2	6	7	-9	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	15	10	3	2	+13	33
2	Guimaraes	16	10	3	3	+9	33
3	Sp Lisbon	15	8	4	3	+9	28
4	Porto	14	7	6	1	+17	27
5	Sp Braga	15	5	5	5	-1	20
6	Boavista	16	4	7	5	-7	19
7	Feirense	15	5	4	6	-8	19
8	Estoril	15	4	5	6	-2	17
9	Rio Ave	15	5	2	8	-5	17
10	Belenenses	15	4	3	8	-13	15
11	Maritimo	15	3	5	7	-10	14
12	Chaves	15	2	6	7	-7	12
13	Moreirense	15	4	0	11	-13	12
14	Arouca	15	3	3	9	-16	12
15	Vitoria Setubal	15	2	5	8	-10	11
16	Nacional	15	2	2	11	-20	8
17	Pacos Ferreira	15	1	4	10	-15	7
18	Tondela	15	0	5	10	-22	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.