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Ligue 1

Referee: Benoit Millot

Bastia

T U U T T

0–1

Full-time

Lille

S T U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bastia Lille

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,5

2,3

Scored

0,5

1,2

Conceded

2,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,5

+0,0

This season — Ligue 1 · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 24%

17%

30%

Points per game

0,8

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

43%

40%

Both score Ø 52%

50%

53%

Average goals

2,3

2,2

Scored

0,8

1,0

Conceded

1,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

43% Possession 57%

14 Shots 9

2 Shots on target 3

9 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 0

0 Offside 3

10 Free kicks against 15

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bastia 19. · Lille 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Monaco	30	22	5	3	+61	71
2	Paris SG	30	21	5	4	+39	68
3	Nice	30	18	10	2	+24	64
4	Lyon	29	16	2	11	+26	50
5	Marseille	31	13	8	10	+6	47
6	Bordeaux	30	12	10	8	+5	46
7	St Etienne	30	11	11	8	+10	44
8	Guingamp	31	11	8	12	-1	41
9	Rennes	30	9	12	9	-5	39
10	Angers	30	11	6	13	-7	39
11	Nantes	30	10	8	12	-16	38
12	Toulouse	30	9	10	11	-1	37
13	Metz	29	9	8	12	-24	35
14	Lille	30	9	7	14	-8	34
15	Montpellier	30	8	9	13	-11	33
16	Caen	30	9	5	16	-20	32
17	Dijon	31	6	11	14	-9	29
18	Nancy	31	7	7	17	-20	28
19	Bastia	30	5	10	15	-20	25
20	Lorient	30	7	4	19	-29	25

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Monaco	15	13	1	1	+41	40
2	Nice	15	11	4	0	+20	37
3	Paris SG	15	10	5	0	+24	35
4	Marseille	16	10	4	2	+14	34
5	Lyon	15	11	0	4	+23	33
6	Guingamp	15	9	3	3	+11	30
7	Rennes	15	8	5	2	+9	29
8	Toulouse	15	8	3	4	+11	27
9	St Etienne	15	7	6	2	+11	27
10	Montpellier	15	7	5	3	+10	26
11	Angers	15	7	5	3	+8	26
12	Bordeaux	16	7	5	4	+3	26
13	Metz	14	6	5	3	-4	23
14	Caen	15	7	2	6	-7	23
15	Dijon	15	5	5	5	+4	20
16	Nantes	15	5	4	6	-9	19
17	Bastia	15	3	9	3	+1	18
18	Lille	15	5	3	7	-3	18
19	Nancy	15	5	2	8	-4	17
20	Lorient	15	5	2	8	-9	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	15	11	0	4	+15	33
2	Monaco	15	9	4	2	+20	31
3	Nice	15	7	6	2	+4	27
4	Bordeaux	14	5	5	4	+2	20
5	Nantes	15	5	4	6	-7	19
6	Lyon	14	5	2	7	+3	17
7	St Etienne	15	4	5	6	-1	17
8	Lille	15	4	4	7	-5	16
9	Marseille	15	3	4	8	-8	13
10	Angers	15	4	1	10	-15	13
11	Metz	15	3	3	9	-20	12
12	Guingamp	16	2	5	9	-12	11
13	Nancy	16	2	5	9	-16	11
14	Toulouse	15	1	7	7	-12	10
15	Rennes	15	1	7	7	-14	10
16	Dijon	16	1	6	9	-13	9
17	Caen	15	2	3	10	-13	9
18	Lorient	15	2	2	11	-20	8
19	Montpellier	15	1	4	10	-21	7
20	Bastia	15	2	1	12	-21	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.