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Ligue 1

Referee: Amaury Delerue

Lille

T U S U S

1–2

Full-time

Nice

S S U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lille Nice

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,8

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,0

2,3

Scored

1,2

1,5

Conceded

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,7

This season — Ligue 1 · 31/31 matches

Win Ø 47%

32%

61%

Points per game

1,2

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

39%

45%

Both score Ø 52%

52%

Average goals

2,2

2,4

Scored

1,0

1,6

Conceded

1,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

40% Possession 60%

11 Shots 12

3 Shots on target 7

2 Blocked shots 1

5 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 3

1 Offside 0

22 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lille 13. · Nice 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Monaco	30	22	5	3	+61	71
2	Paris SG	30	21	5	4	+39	68
3	Nice	31	19	10	2	+25	67
4	Lyon	31	17	3	11	+29	54
5	Marseille	31	13	8	10	+6	47
6	Bordeaux	31	12	10	9	+4	46
7	St Etienne	30	11	11	8	+10	44
8	Guingamp	31	11	8	12	-1	41
9	Nantes	31	11	8	12	-15	41
10	Toulouse	31	10	10	11	+0	40
11	Rennes	31	9	13	9	-5	40
12	Angers	31	11	6	14	-8	39
13	Lille	31	10	7	14	-7	37
14	Metz	30	9	8	13	-27	35
15	Montpellier	31	8	9	14	-12	33
16	Caen	31	9	5	17	-21	32
17	Dijon	31	6	11	14	-9	29
18	Nancy	31	7	7	17	-20	28
19	Lorient	31	8	4	19	-28	28
20	Bastia	31	5	10	16	-21	25

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Monaco	15	13	1	1	+41	40
2	Nice	16	12	4	0	+21	40
3	Paris SG	15	10	5	0	+24	35
4	Marseille	16	10	4	2	+14	34
5	Lyon	15	11	0	4	+23	33
6	Guingamp	15	9	3	3	+11	30
7	Rennes	16	8	6	2	+9	30
8	Toulouse	15	8	3	4	+11	27
9	St Etienne	15	7	6	2	+11	27
10	Montpellier	16	7	5	4	+9	26
11	Angers	15	7	5	3	+8	26
12	Bordeaux	16	7	5	4	+3	26
13	Metz	15	6	5	4	-7	23
14	Caen	15	7	2	6	-7	23
15	Nantes	16	6	4	6	-8	22
16	Dijon	15	5	5	5	+4	20
17	Lorient	16	6	2	8	-8	20
18	Bastia	16	3	9	4	+0	18
19	Lille	15	5	3	7	-3	18
20	Nancy	15	5	2	8	-4	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	15	11	0	4	+15	33
2	Monaco	15	9	4	2	+20	31
3	Nice	15	7	6	2	+4	27
4	Lyon	16	6	3	7	+6	21
5	Bordeaux	15	5	5	5	+1	20
6	Lille	16	5	4	7	-4	19
7	Nantes	15	5	4	6	-7	19
8	St Etienne	15	4	5	6	-1	17
9	Marseille	15	3	4	8	-8	13
10	Toulouse	16	2	7	7	-11	13
11	Angers	16	4	1	11	-16	13
12	Metz	15	3	3	9	-20	12
13	Guingamp	16	2	5	9	-12	11
14	Nancy	16	2	5	9	-16	11
15	Rennes	15	1	7	7	-14	10
16	Dijon	16	1	6	9	-13	9
17	Caen	16	2	3	11	-14	9
18	Lorient	15	2	2	11	-20	8
19	Montpellier	15	1	4	10	-21	7
20	Bastia	15	2	1	12	-21	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.