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Primeira Liga

Referee: Hugo Miguel

Benfica

U U S S U

2–1

Full-time

Estoril

U S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Benfica Estoril

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

2,0

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,0

2,7

Scored

1,7

1,8

Conceded

0,3

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+1,0

This season — Primeira Liga · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 50%

73%

27%

Points per game

2,4

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

50%

30%

Both score Ø 37%

37%

Average goals

2,6

2,1

Scored

2,1

0,9

Conceded

0,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,6

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

57% Possession 43%

11 Shots 11

3 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 7

1 Offside 7

18 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Benfica 1. · Estoril 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	30	22	6	2	+47	72
2	Porto	30	20	9	1	+49	69
3	Sp Lisbon	30	19	7	4	+31	64
4	Guimaraes	31	17	8	6	+16	59
5	Sp Braga	30	14	9	7	+15	51
6	Maritimo	30	13	8	9	+3	47
7	Rio Ave	31	13	6	12	+1	45
8	Boavista	31	9	11	11	-4	38
9	Chaves	30	8	13	9	-1	37
10	Feirense	30	10	6	14	-18	36
11	Vitoria Setubal	31	9	8	14	-8	35
12	Pacos Ferreira	30	7	11	12	-10	32
13	Belenenses	30	8	8	14	-17	32
14	Estoril	30	8	7	15	-8	31
15	Arouca	30	9	4	17	-20	31
16	Moreirense	30	6	7	17	-18	25
17	Tondela	31	5	8	18	-27	23
18	Nacional	31	4	8	19	-31	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	16	13	3	0	+32	42
2	Benfica	15	12	3	0	+34	39
3	Sp Lisbon	15	11	3	1	+22	36
4	Maritimo	15	10	3	2	+13	33
5	Sp Braga	15	9	4	2	+16	31
6	Guimaraes	15	7	5	3	+7	26
7	Chaves	15	6	7	2	+6	25
8	Pacos Ferreira	15	6	7	2	+5	25
9	Rio Ave	15	7	4	4	+4	25
10	Vitoria Setubal	16	7	3	6	+2	24
11	Boavista	15	5	4	6	+3	19
12	Arouca	15	6	1	8	-4	19
13	Tondela	15	5	3	7	-4	18
14	Belenenses	15	4	5	6	-4	17
15	Feirense	15	5	2	8	-10	17
16	Estoril	15	4	2	9	-6	14
17	Moreirense	15	2	7	6	-5	13
18	Nacional	16	2	6	8	-11	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	15	10	3	2	+13	33
2	Guimaraes	16	10	3	3	+9	33
3	Sp Lisbon	15	8	4	3	+9	28
4	Porto	14	7	6	1	+17	27
5	Sp Braga	15	5	5	5	-1	20
6	Rio Ave	16	6	2	8	-3	20
7	Boavista	16	4	7	5	-7	19
8	Feirense	15	5	4	6	-8	19
9	Estoril	15	4	5	6	-2	17
10	Belenenses	15	4	3	8	-13	15
11	Maritimo	15	3	5	7	-10	14
12	Chaves	15	2	6	7	-7	12
13	Moreirense	15	4	0	11	-13	12
14	Arouca	15	3	3	9	-16	12
15	Vitoria Setubal	15	2	5	8	-10	11
16	Nacional	15	2	2	11	-20	8
17	Pacos Ferreira	15	1	4	10	-15	7
18	Tondela	16	0	5	11	-23	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.