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Ligue 1

Referee: Karim Abed

Caen

T U S T T

0–1

Full-time

Lille

U S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Caen Lille

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,5

2,0

Scored

0,8

Conceded

1,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,3

This season — Ligue 1 · 24/25 matches

Win Ø 29%

29%

28%

Points per game

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 41%

42%

40%

Both score Ø 45%

38%

52%

Average goals

2,8

2,2

Scored

1,0

0,9

Conceded

1,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

48% Possession 52%

16 Shots 7

3 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 3

4 Offside 0

12 Free kicks against 8

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Caen 18. · Lille 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Monaco	26	18	5	3	+52	59
2	Paris SG	25	17	4	4	+32	55
3	Nice	25	15	8	2	+21	53
4	Lyon	24	13	1	10	+16	40
5	St Etienne	25	10	9	6	+11	39
6	Marseille	26	11	6	9	+4	39
7	Bordeaux	25	9	9	7	-2	36
8	Guingamp	25	9	7	9	+0	34
9	Toulouse	25	9	6	10	+3	33
10	Rennes	26	8	9	9	-6	33
11	Montpellier	25	7	8	10	-6	29
12	Nantes	24	8	5	11	-15	29
13	Metz	24	8	5	11	-20	29
14	Dijon	25	6	9	10	-3	27
15	Angers	25	7	6	12	-12	27
16	Nancy	24	7	6	11	-14	27
17	Lille	25	7	5	13	-9	26
18	Caen	24	7	4	13	-17	25
19	Bastia	25	5	8	12	-11	23
20	Lorient	25	6	4	15	-24	22

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Monaco	13	11	1	1	+36	34
2	Nice	13	10	3	0	+19	33
3	Marseille	13	9	3	1	+15	30
4	Paris SG	12	8	4	0	+22	28
5	St Etienne	13	7	5	1	+12	26
6	Toulouse	13	8	1	4	+11	25
7	Rennes	13	7	4	2	+8	25
8	Lyon	12	8	0	4	+12	24
9	Guingamp	12	7	3	2	+6	24
10	Montpellier	12	6	4	2	+10	22
11	Dijon	13	5	5	3	+6	20
12	Caen	11	6	2	3	-3	20
13	Bordeaux	13	5	4	4	-4	19
14	Metz	11	5	3	3	-5	18
15	Angers	12	4	5	3	+1	17
16	Lille	13	5	2	6	-2	17
17	Lorient	12	5	2	5	-4	17
18	Bastia	13	3	7	3	+1	16
19	Nancy	12	5	1	6	-2	16
20	Nantes	13	4	3	6	-11	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	13	9	0	4	+10	27
2	Monaco	13	7	4	2	+16	25
3	Nice	12	5	5	2	+2	20
4	Bordeaux	12	4	5	3	+2	17
5	Lyon	12	5	1	6	+4	16
6	Nantes	11	4	2	5	-4	14
7	St Etienne	12	3	4	5	-1	13
8	Nancy	12	2	5	5	-12	11
9	Metz	13	3	2	8	-15	11
10	Guingamp	13	2	4	7	-6	10
11	Angers	13	3	1	9	-13	10
12	Lille	12	2	3	7	-7	9
13	Marseille	13	2	3	8	-11	9
14	Toulouse	12	1	5	6	-8	8
15	Rennes	13	1	5	7	-14	8
16	Dijon	12	1	4	7	-9	7
17	Bastia	12	2	1	9	-12	7
18	Montpellier	13	1	4	8	-16	7
19	Caen	13	1	2	10	-14	5
20	Lorient	13	1	2	10	-20	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.