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Ligue 1

Referee: Jerome Miguelgorry

Nantes

T T S S S

1–0

Full-time

Caen

T U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nantes Caen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

17%

83%

Both score Ø 42%

83%

Average goals

2,0

4,2

Scored

0,7

2,2

Conceded

1,3

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,2

This season — Ligue 1 · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 32%

32%

Points per game

1,2

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

32%

47%

Both score Ø 37%

32%

42%

Average goals

2,1

3,0

Scored

0,7

1,2

Conceded

1,4

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

49% Possession 51%

16 Shots 9

6 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

5 Corners 4

0 Offside 3

12 Free kicks against 9

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nantes 14. · Caen 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Monaco	20	14	3	3	+39	45
2	Nice	20	13	6	1	+21	45
3	Paris SG	20	13	3	4	+24	42
4	Lyon	19	11	1	7	+14	34
5	Guingamp	20	8	6	6	+4	30
6	Marseille	20	8	6	6	+0	30
7	Rennes	20	8	4	8	-4	28
8	St Etienne	20	6	9	5	+2	27
9	Toulouse	20	7	5	8	+0	26
10	Bordeaux	20	6	8	6	-6	26
11	Nancy	20	6	6	8	-7	24
12	Montpellier	20	5	8	7	-3	23
13	Lille	20	6	4	10	-7	22
14	Nantes	19	6	4	9	-13	22
15	Caen	19	6	3	10	-11	21
16	Dijon	20	4	8	8	-3	20
17	Bastia	20	5	5	10	-7	20
18	Angers	20	5	5	10	-9	20
19	Metz	19	5	5	9	-18	20
20	Lorient	20	5	3	12	-16	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Nice	11	8	3	0	+16	27
2	Monaco	10	8	1	1	+24	25
3	Paris SG	10	7	3	0	+21	24
4	Rennes	11	7	2	2	+8	23
5	Marseille	10	6	3	1	+7	21
6	Guingamp	9	6	2	1	+6	20
7	Caen	10	6	2	2	+1	20
8	Montpellier	10	5	4	1	+10	19
9	Toulouse	10	6	1	3	+7	19
10	Lyon	9	6	0	3	+7	18
11	St Etienne	10	4	5	1	+5	17
12	Lille	11	5	2	4	+0	17
13	Dijon	10	4	4	2	+6	16
14	Nancy	10	5	1	4	+3	16
15	Lorient	10	5	1	4	-3	16
16	Bordeaux	10	4	3	3	-2	15
17	Bastia	10	3	4	3	+1	13
18	Angers	10	3	4	3	+0	13
19	Metz	8	2	3	3	-9	9
20	Nantes	9	2	3	4	-9	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Monaco	10	6	2	2	+15	20
2	Nice	9	5	3	1	+5	18
3	Paris SG	10	6	0	4	+3	18
4	Lyon	10	5	1	4	+7	16
5	Nantes	10	4	1	5	-4	13
6	Bordeaux	10	2	5	3	-4	11
7	Metz	11	3	2	6	-9	11
8	Guingamp	11	2	4	5	-2	10
9	St Etienne	10	2	4	4	-3	10
10	Marseille	10	2	3	5	-7	9
11	Nancy	10	1	5	4	-10	8
12	Toulouse	10	1	4	5	-7	7
13	Bastia	10	2	1	7	-8	7
14	Angers	10	2	1	7	-9	7
15	Lille	9	1	2	6	-7	5
16	Rennes	9	1	2	6	-12	5
17	Dijon	10	0	4	6	-9	4
18	Montpellier	10	0	4	6	-13	4
19	Lorient	10	0	2	8	-13	2
20	Caen	9	0	1	8	-12	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.