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Ligue 1

Referee: Jerome Miguelgorry

Caen

S T T T U

0–0

Full-time

Bastia

U S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Caen Bastia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,8

3,0

Scored

0,7

1,0

Conceded

2,2

2,0

Goal diff per game

-1,5

-1,0

This season — Ligue 1 · 35/35 matches

Win Ø 37%

40%

34%

Points per game

1,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

46%

34%

Both score Ø 42%

46%

37%

Average goals

2,5

2,1

Scored

1,0

0,9

Conceded

1,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

52% Possession 48%

14 Shots 7

5 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

4 Corners 3

5 Offside 1

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Caen 10. · Bastia 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	35	28	5	2	+75	89
2	Lyon	35	17	8	10	+21	59
3	Monaco	35	15	14	6	+9	59
4	St Etienne	36	17	7	12	+8	58
5	Nice	36	16	9	11	+14	57
6	Lille	35	13	14	8	+10	53
7	Rennes	36	13	13	10	+1	52
8	Angers	35	13	11	11	+5	50
9	Nantes	36	12	12	12	-6	48
10	Caen	35	14	5	16	-15	47
11	Montpellier	35	12	7	16	+1	43
12	Guingamp	35	11	10	14	-7	43
13	Lorient	35	10	13	12	-8	43
14	Bastia	35	12	7	16	-8	43
15	Bordeaux	34	10	13	11	-11	43
16	Marseille	35	8	17	10	+4	41
17	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	35	8	13	14	-15	37
18	Reims	35	9	9	17	-14	36
19	Toulouse	36	7	13	16	-12	34
20	Troyes	35	3	8	24	-52	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	18	14	3	1	+43	45
2	Nice	18	11	2	5	+14	35
3	Lyon	17	10	4	3	+20	34
4	St Etienne	18	10	4	4	+11	34
5	Lille	18	9	5	4	+10	32
6	Bastia	18	10	2	6	+8	32
7	Monaco	17	8	6	3	+8	30
8	Nantes	18	8	5	5	+1	29
9	Bordeaux	17	7	6	4	+4	27
10	Angers	17	6	8	3	+7	26
11	Caen	17	8	2	7	-5	26
12	Lorient	17	6	7	4	+5	25
13	Guingamp	18	6	7	5	+4	25
14	Rennes	18	6	7	5	+1	25
15	Montpellier	18	8	0	10	+1	24
16	Reims	17	6	5	6	+3	23
17	Toulouse	18	5	7	6	+7	22
18	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	18	5	7	6	-5	22
19	Marseille	18	2	11	5	+2	17
20	Troyes	17	1	6	10	-21	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	17	14	2	1	+32	44
2	Monaco	18	7	8	3	+1	29
3	Rennes	18	7	6	5	+0	27
4	Lyon	18	7	4	7	+1	25
5	Marseille	17	6	6	5	+2	24
6	Angers	18	7	3	8	-2	24
7	St Etienne	18	7	3	8	-3	24
8	Nice	18	5	7	6	+0	22
9	Lille	17	4	9	4	+0	21
10	Caen	18	6	3	9	-10	21
11	Montpellier	17	4	7	6	+0	19
12	Nantes	18	4	7	7	-7	19
13	Guingamp	17	5	3	9	-11	18
14	Lorient	18	4	6	8	-13	18
15	Bordeaux	17	3	7	7	-15	16
16	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	17	3	6	8	-10	15
17	Reims	18	3	4	11	-17	13
18	Toulouse	18	2	6	10	-19	12
19	Bastia	17	2	5	10	-16	11
20	Troyes	18	2	2	14	-31	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.