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Serie A

Referee: Marco Di Bello

Roma

U S T U U

3–2

Full-time

Genoa

T T U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Roma Genoa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

1,2

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 83%

83%

Average goals

3,0

Scored

1,7

0,8

Conceded

1,3

2,2

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-1,3

This season — Serie A · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 30%

33%

27%

Points per game

1,4

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

53%

67%

Both score Ø 70%

60%

80%

Average goals

3,1

3,3

Scored

1,7

1,3

Conceded

1,3

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,4

-0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

55% Possession 45%

16 Shots 15

6 Shots on target 9

3 Blocked shots 2

7 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 4

0 Offside 9

10 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Roma 11. · Genoa 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	16	15	1	0	+25	46
2	Napoli	16	12	2	2	+19	38
3	Inter	16	10	2	4	+15	32
4	Milan	15	7	5	3	+6	26
5	Lazio	15	7	4	4	+4	25
6	Sassuolo	16	6	6	4	+4	24
7	Sampdoria	16	6	5	5	+6	23
8	Fiorentina	16	5	7	4	+7	22
9	Torino	16	5	7	4	+2	22
10	Atalanta	15	6	3	6	+9	21
11	Roma	15	5	6	4	+6	21
12	Parma	16	6	3	7	-5	21
13	Cagliari	16	3	8	5	-5	17
14	Empoli	16	4	4	8	-9	16
15	Genoa	15	4	4	7	-10	16
16	Spal	16	4	4	8	-10	16
17	Udinese	16	3	4	9	-9	13
18	Bologna	15	2	5	8	-11	11
19	Frosinone	16	1	5	10	-24	8
20	Chievo	16	0	7	9	-20	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	8	7	1	0	+12	22
2	Napoli	8	6	2	0	+15	20
3	Inter	8	6	1	1	+12	19
4	Fiorentina	8	5	2	1	+10	17
5	Milan	8	5	2	1	+4	17
6	Sampdoria	8	4	2	2	+5	14
7	Lazio	8	4	2	2	+4	14
8	Sassuolo	8	3	4	1	+2	13
9	Empoli	8	4	1	3	+1	13
10	Roma	7	3	3	1	+7	12
11	Genoa	8	3	3	2	+1	12
12	Parma	8	3	3	2	+1	12
13	Cagliari	8	2	5	1	+2	11
14	Atalanta	7	3	1	3	+7	10
15	Torino	8	3	1	4	-2	10
16	Spal	8	2	3	3	-3	9
17	Bologna	7	2	2	3	-2	8
18	Udinese	8	2	1	5	-7	7
19	Frosinone	8	0	4	4	-10	4
20	Chievo	8	0	3	5	-10	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	8	8	0	0	+13	24
2	Napoli	8	6	0	2	+4	18
3	Inter	8	4	1	3	+3	13
4	Torino	8	2	6	0	+4	12
5	Atalanta	8	3	2	3	+2	11
6	Sassuolo	8	3	2	3	+2	11
7	Lazio	7	3	2	2	+0	11
8	Milan	7	2	3	2	+2	9
9	Sampdoria	8	2	3	3	+1	9
10	Roma	8	2	3	3	-1	9
11	Parma	8	3	0	5	-6	9
12	Spal	8	2	1	5	-7	7
13	Udinese	8	1	3	4	-2	6
14	Cagliari	8	1	3	4	-7	6
15	Fiorentina	8	0	5	3	-3	5
16	Chievo	8	0	4	4	-10	4
17	Genoa	7	1	1	5	-11	4
18	Frosinone	8	1	1	6	-14	4
19	Bologna	8	0	3	5	-9	3
20	Empoli	8	0	3	5	-10	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.