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La Liga
Referee: Antonio Mateu
Ath Madrid
U U S S S
1–2
Full-time
Barcelona
S U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ath Madrid Barcelona
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 75%
67%
83%
Points per game
2,3
2,7
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
50%
83%
Both score Ø 42%
50%
33%
Average goals
2,8
3,8
Scored
2,0
3,5
Conceded
0,8
0,3
Goal diff per game
+1,2
+3,2
This season — La Liga · 23/23 matches
Win Ø 61%
57%
65%
Points per game
2,0
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 54%
43%
65%
Both score Ø 44%
30%
57%
Average goals
2,7
3,6
Scored
1,9
2,7
Conceded
0,8
0,8
Goal diff per game
+1,0
+1,9
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

36% Possession 64%
13 Shots 15
4 Shots on target 6
4 Blocked shots 5
4 Goalkeeper saves 3
6 Corners 5
3 Offside 0
28 Free kicks against 14
4 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Ath Madrid 4. · Barcelona 3.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Real Madrid 22 16 4 2 +37 52
2 Sevilla 24 16 4 4 +19 52
3 Barcelona 23 15 6 2 +44 51
4 Ath Madrid 23 13 6 4 +24 45
5 Sociedad 24 14 2 8 +5 44
6 Villarreal 23 10 9 4 +15 39
7 Eibar 24 11 5 8 +8 38
8 Espanol 24 9 8 7 +2 35
9 Ath Bilbao 23 10 5 8 +0 35
10 Celta 22 10 3 9 +0 33
11 Alaves 24 8 9 7 -5 33
12 Las Palmas 24 7 7 10 -4 28
13 Valencia 24 7 5 12 -9 26
14 Malaga 24 6 8 10 -9 26
15 Betis 23 6 6 11 -14 24
16 Leganes 24 5 6 13 -19 21
17 La Coruna 23 4 7 12 -13 19
18 Sp Gijon 23 4 4 15 -22 16
19 Granada 23 3 7 13 -28 16
20 Osasuna 24 1 7 16 -31 10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Ath Madrid Barcelona
Half-time 0–0
55′
🟨 Sergio Busquets
Saúl Ñíguez 🟨
56′
64′
Rafinha 0–1
L. Suárez
Stefan Savić 🟨
65′
Fernando Torres 🔁
↦ Y. Carrasco
68′
1–1 D. Godín
Koke
70′
71′
🔁 I. Rakitić
↦ Iniesta
Á. Correa 🔁
↦ K. Gameiro
72′
Gabi 🟨
73′
Ángel Correa 🟨
74′
77′
🔁 L. Digne
↦ J. Mathieu
82′
🟨 Lionel Messi
85′
🔁 André Gomes
↦ Sergi Roberto
86′
L. Messi 1–2
Full-time 1–2

Line-ups

Ath Madrid

4-4-2
13 J. Oblak G
3 Filipe Luis D
2 D. Godín D
16 Š. Vrsaljko D
15 S. Savić D
14 Gabi M
8 Saúl M
6 Koke M
10 Y. Carrasco M
21 K. Gameiro F
7 A. Griezmann F
Bench (7)
9 Fernando Torres
11 Á. Correa
1 Moyà
19 L. Hernández
22 T. Partey
23 N. Gaitán
24 J. Giménez

Coach: D. Simeone

Barcelona

3-3-1-3
1 M. ter Stegen G
24 J. Mathieu D
3 Piqué D
23 S. Umtiti D
8 Iniesta M
5 Busquets M
20 Sergi Roberto D
12 Rafinha M
10 L. Messi F
9 L. Suárez F
11 Neymar F
Bench (7)
4 I. Rakitić
19 L. Digne
21 André Gomes
6 Denis Suárez
13 J. Cillessen
17 Paco Alcácer
18 Jordi Alba

Coach: Luis Enrique

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Antonio Mateu · 160 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,9 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
23,6 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,17 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.